Brian,

I don’t know what your research background is. But you just made what appear to be three of the most common mistakes that researchers can make. And I can speak with a considerable amount of authority on this subject because I myself have probably done the same thing innumerable times over the years.

When I myself fall into one of these research traps and finally realize that, I try to make a mental note about it so that I will recognize when it happens again. It can then hopefully be avoided.

1. Assuming That You Know What Some Other Researchers Motives And Goals Are

This is probably one of the most common mistakes.

It appears that you thought I was trying to say that I had accurately forecast the earthquake. However, if you visited my Web page and read what I had to say about that earthquake they you would have seen that I have a statement there that says that I am in the process of trying to determine if EM Signals detected before the earthquake might have been pointing to its approach.

Does that sound like a claim for a prediction?

What I have been telling earthquake researchers around the world is that when they have something important to say about an earthquake, a forecast, or a forecasting method they need to make the information available at a Web site etc. so that others researchers can see if they are making any progress with that method.

What that Chart at my Web site is intended in part to do is show that my earthquake forecasting computer program determined that the earthquake itself was a good match for other earthquakes that had occurred in the past at that longitude. That is critically important information because it provides us with some idea regarding the likelihood that future earthquakes at that location will be predictable.

2. Forming An Opinion Without Accurately Evaluating The Data

You might have noticed that although I have stated that I believe that Amit Dave’s earthquake triggering theories might not be accurate, I have never said that his forecasting program could not work. That is because over the years I have learned that it can be pretty risky to form an opinion on something without being an expert on it. And even experts on some subject have to be careful about what opinions they form.

3. Not Looking At Things With The Right Perspective

Before researchers express an opinion on something they need to step back and look at the overall picture and ask,

“How important is the subject being discussed.”

If it is a subject that can have a major impact on the health and lives of people around the world then the researchers need to be careful about what they say. Earthquakes certainly fall into that highly important category.

PROPOSED BULLETIN BOARD

On a number of occasions I have posted notes here stating that I am in the process of trying to create a sophisticated bulletin board specifically designed to let earthquake researchers circulate their data etc. in a more effective manner. It would provide them with the option that when they posted a note to the board, they could state that any responses would have to be sent to them for posting approval.

If that bulletin board already existed then your response would have been sent to me by E-mail. And I would have told you that I wasn’t trying to claim to have made a prediction but was instead trying to circulate some earthquake information that I thought was important. And this present lengthy posting could have been avoided.

A CLOUD WITH A SILVER LINING?

Actually, your post might have been helpful. I wanted to include a copy of the Web site chart that I mentioned with my original posting. But it takes too much time and effort to do that for every posting. Special procedures have to be used to store the original picture files on my Web site.

After reading your note I was able to make a determination of how it might be possible to avoid that extra effort in the future.

FreeWebz lets you send picture files etc. to your own Web site for public display if desired by attaching them to an E-mail and sending it to a special address. That can save a lot of time and trouble. And with these postings I am considering using use that procedure in the future.

Unfortunately, that Freewebz resource does not appear to be up and running at the moment. But it has worked in the past.

My new Web site allows that as well. But a special CGI program has to be used to receive the E-mail, extract the attached picture files, and then store them in the proper directory at the site. And I don’t have a CGI program organized for doing that yet.

Getting such a program running has moved close to the top of my “Things To Do” list now that some important Perl language code has finally been generated and added to my Etdprog.exe earthquake forecasting computer program.