Re: Dueling 5.1s South of the Border And another one!
Posted by Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande on February 12, 2008 at 06:03:30:

Good points, Chris. But I'm not sure about the one paragraph quoted here:

"Note that a 1 in 1000 of intensity 6 in 24 hours might be 1 in 200 in 10 days...and this is in Salton Trough: the probability would be higher in the area of the quakes..."

1:1000 in 24 hours will not translate to anywhere near 1:200 in 10 days (I assume you divided 1000 by 5, not 10, intentionally), as the probability drops off much more rapidly than that with time.

The "SCSN Commentary" that Canie linked to states that earthquake swarms are common for the area. I wonder why.

Mike W.

Follow Ups:
     ● SCNC link - heartland chris  07:54:50 - 2/12/2008  (73308)  (1)
        ● Re: SCNC link - Cathryn  11:07:29 - 2/12/2008  (73310)  (1)
           ● Re: SCNC link - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  11:31:51 - 2/12/2008  (73311)  (2)
              ● No certainty at all...except... - Glen  19:15:40 - 2/12/2008  (73323)  (0)
              ● probability - heartland chris  11:41:46 - 2/12/2008  (73313)  (3)
                 ● omori law = inverse time - John Vidale  15:58:45 - 2/12/2008  (73319)  (1)
                    ● Re: omori law = inverse time - Glen  17:11:00 - 2/12/2008  (73320)  (1)
                       ● swarms - John Vidale  18:30:05 - 2/12/2008  (73321)  (1)
                          ● Got it.... - Glen  19:02:37 - 2/12/2008  (73322)  (1)
                             ● mid-March would be good - John Vidale  19:17:30 - 2/12/2008  (73324)  (1)
                                ● We will all tune in----thanx, n/t - Glen  21:43:34 - 2/12/2008  (73326)  (0)
                 ● Re: probability - Canie  12:36:23 - 2/12/2008  (73315)  (0)
                 ● Re: probability - Roger Hunter  12:18:22 - 2/12/2008  (73314)  (1)
                    ● Re: probability - Cathryn  19:49:48 - 2/12/2008  (73325)  (0)