probability
Posted by heartland chris on February 12, 2008 at 11:41:46:

Yup, probability is higher that something will happen in a 10 day interval than a 1 day interval, even if the 24 hour probabilities decrease with time.
And, the probability equation is more complicated, so you don't get 100% after 1000 days. I don't know what the equation is...probably Roger does, or could google it. Roger, if you bother to explain, don't be terse or I probably won't be able to follow.
M2.8 in southern Salton Sea....this is near southern end of San Andreas fault. Watch this area...
Chris


Follow Ups:
     ● omori law = inverse time - John Vidale  15:58:45 - 2/12/2008  (73319)  (1)
        ● Re: omori law = inverse time - Glen  17:11:00 - 2/12/2008  (73320)  (1)
           ● swarms - John Vidale  18:30:05 - 2/12/2008  (73321)  (1)
              ● Got it.... - Glen  19:02:37 - 2/12/2008  (73322)  (1)
                 ● mid-March would be good - John Vidale  19:17:30 - 2/12/2008  (73324)  (1)
                    ● We will all tune in----thanx, n/t - Glen  21:43:34 - 2/12/2008  (73326)  (0)
     ● Re: probability - Canie  12:36:23 - 2/12/2008  (73315)  (0)
     ● Re: probability - Roger Hunter  12:18:22 - 2/12/2008  (73314)  (1)
        ● Re: probability - Cathryn  19:49:48 - 2/12/2008  (73325)  (0)