The Holy Grail of Earthquake Prediction
Posted by Petra Challus on May 01, 2001 at 12:42:38:

Hi All,

Earthquake prediction in itself leads people to and fro, from believing in one, to none, to maybe on some others. Let's face the facts, if anyone had the perfect method, then we'd already know about it.

However, let's take all of the predictors and use a little bit of what they know, add to that instrumentation and the key to the door to unlock this problem might happen. It only takes a few people for this kind of project and one very good computer programmer. If not perfect, it could be the start of perfection anyway. But the finishing touch is still in the minds of human beings to determine if what appears to be possible will actually happen. That's tough. But it requires much practice, adjustment and in time if the results prove better than random chance, then one would know whether it works or not.

The problem is that earthquake prediction is possible, but its not repeatable often enough by individuals using whatever methods they are using. So we need to really focus on doing something different that will make the non-repeatable, repeatable. Its just that simple.

Suppose a group of volunteers joined together to do this project. How many would it take? Who has the ability to stick with it? Who can handle the personalities of those involved without wanting to do away with one or two of them? See, the work is easy, working together often is difficult.

In this arena of earthquake prediction, their are supporters and naysayers for every single person who thinks they have it figured out. Statistics show most often, there's a flaw somewhere. Some will chose to acknowledge the flaw, where others will chose to believe it doesn't exist. Jim Jones was very charismatic and lead his people to death and few of them were able to see beyond what he wanted to do. Let us be aware ourselves and chose to look at the bigger picture, rather than the isolated one. In this we have a much better and more informed opinion. For those who don't, in time they will either take a look around or they will chose not to. It's there for them, if they want to see it.

As for money in earthquake prediction, from my point of view it only goes to those who possess the holy grail. The person or persons who figure this out stand a chance to win the Nobel Peace Prize in the scientific discovery of a lifetime. That comes with money, as do lectures, books and so forth. Other than that, I don't see it.

Just some thoughts I wanted to share...Petra


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: The Holy Grail of Earthquake Prediction - bobshannon.org  06:57:38 - 5/2/2001  (7260)  (0)
     ● Re: The Holy Grail of Earthquake Prediction - Don in Hollister  13:48:19 - 5/1/2001  (7233)  (1)
        ● Re: The Holy Grail of Earthquake Prediction - Roger Hunter  17:53:35 - 5/1/2001  (7245)  (2)
           ● Re: The Holy Grail of Earthquake Prediction - Don in Hollister  18:31:03 - 5/1/2001  (7248)  (1)
              ● Re: The Holy Grail of Earthquake Prediction - Roger Hunter  18:53:18 - 5/1/2001  (7250)  (2)
                 ● Re: The Holy Grail of Earthquake Prediction - Petra Challus  20:50:06 - 5/1/2001  (7256)  (1)
                    ● Re: The Holy Grail of Earthquake Prediction - Roger Hunter  04:40:06 - 5/2/2001  (7259)  (0)
                 ● Re: The Holy Grail of Earthquake Prediction - Don in Hollister  19:24:37 - 5/1/2001  (7251)  (3)
                    ● Re: The Holy Grail of Earthquake Prediction - Roger Musson  08:29:37 - 5/3/2001  (7364)  (0)
                    ● Re: The Holy Grail of Earthquake Prediction - Roger Hunter  19:38:52 - 5/1/2001  (7254)  (0)
                    ● Re: The Holy Grail of Earthquake Prediction - Roger Hunter  19:36:37 - 5/1/2001  (7253)  (1)
                       ● Re: The Holy Grail of Earthquake Prediction - Don in Hollister  19:59:14 - 5/1/2001  (7255)  (0)
           ● Re: The Holy Grail of Earthquake Prediction - Petra Challus  18:17:09 - 5/1/2001  (7247)  (1)
              ● Re: The Holy Grail of Earthquake Prediction - Roger Hunter  18:48:44 - 5/1/2001  (7249)  (0)