a summary
Posted by John Vidale on January 24, 2007 at 18:26:22:

this third to last paragraph offers a summary:

NASA’s ‘Remarkably Unremarkable’ Success Rate

On the basis of the analysis presented above, the success rate referred to in the NASA announcement is perhaps better characterized as ‘remarkably unremarkable’ rather than amazing. The simple analysis presented here suggests that the RT method does not predict the locations of future earthquakes any better than merely assuming that future earthquakes occur near past earthquakes. There may be something more significant to the RT method than just proximity to past earthquakes, and this analysis
does not demonstrate that there is not. However, the amazing success of predicting 14 of 15 of the earthquakes listed in the scorecard is not a very rigorous test of their method.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: a summary - Cathryn  00:59:39 - 1/25/2007  (62393)  (1)
        ● re: a summary - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  07:11:47 - 1/25/2007  (62398)  (1)
           ● Re: re: a summary - Dennis Glasby  12:19:02 - 1/25/2007  (62401)  (2)
              ● Re: re: a summary - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  06:20:29 - 1/26/2007  (62413)  (1)
                 ● M8 and MSc...John V? - heartland chris  08:37:05 - 1/27/2007  (62427)  (3)
                    ● Re: M8 and MSc...John V? - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  07:28:50 - 1/28/2007  (62446)  (0)
                    ● sorry, touchy subject - John Vidale  19:22:02 - 1/27/2007  (62437)  (1)
                       ● Re: sorry, touchy subject - Cathryn  19:38:51 - 1/27/2007  (62438)  (1)
                          ● it's a theory - John Vidale  19:47:13 - 1/27/2007  (62439)  (0)
                    ● Re: M8 and MSc...John V? - Roger Hunter  14:14:49 - 1/27/2007  (62432)  (1)
                       ● Re: M8 and MSc...John V? - Skywise  20:28:50 - 1/27/2007  (62442)  (1)
                          ● Re: M8 and MSc...John V? - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  07:17:23 - 1/28/2007  (62445)  (2)
                             ● Re: M8 and MSc...John V? - Skywise  17:08:06 - 1/28/2007  (62452)  (0)
                             ● Re: M8 and MSc...John V? - heartland chris  07:37:14 - 1/28/2007  (62447)  (1)
                                ● Re: M8 and MSc...John V? - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  17:31:35 - 1/28/2007  (62453)  (0)
              ● iceland - heartland chris  06:04:01 - 1/26/2007  (62412)  (0)