Major to severe geomagnetic storm predicted
Posted by heartland chris on December 14, 2006 at 06:19:56:

Excuse the starting of a new thread...Dennis' is a ways down below...The link is to the space weather page. There was another X class flare yesterday, looks like X2 or X3, and there was a coronal mass ejection (CME), evidently directed at earth, and the prediction (see link) is for a major to severe geomagnetic storm. What is odd is that the Proton flux went way up but the 3 other graphs are very smooth, with Kp, the indictor of magnetic field as measured at earth, dropped almost off the chart....I wonder if this is correct. Since I think I recall it is measured at earth, it should have nothing to do with satellite problems. Some likely effects: may affect space walks at space station/shuttle. Likely to have auroras to low latitudes. Then, a question that had a lot more interest years ago on this page: will there be any affect on seismicity? When I first started reading/posting on this page, I was pretty much convinced that there was a relation....(not my idea...idea of others including Lowell Whiteside and a another seismologist. But, when there were some severe, long-lasting geomagnetic storms a couple years ago, just after the peak of the last solar cycle (as well as earlier), there was not much in the way of what in my casual=non scientific observations any particular unusual seismicity (except maybe the M5+ Adirondack Mts NY quake and 1 or 2 others). And, Roger's analysis of the largest flares against M5+ global seismicity did not seem to show any relation. But, the largest flares need not be the same as the largest storms, and it is always possible that only certain areas, like volcanic areas, as Lowell W. has posted on this page in the far past, might be affected. So, if anyone is interested in working with Roger (assuming he is interested), to look at largest storms vs seismicity in, say, yellowstone+Long Valley, and to particularly look down to the low magnitude end of where those catalogues would be complete, that could be interesting. I'm still interested just enough to pay attention to see if there is anything that comes up if indeed there is a long-lasting severe storm in the next day. It does seem that California has been rather in-active for the last few days on the map. If California does light up tomorrow a little, may not be cause/effect: it has to stand up to some statistical study. I have to check what is in Lowell Whiteside's thesis on this...have not read that thesis since the year 2000. Hmmm...would be buried in a box somewhere...my home office is still in boxes.
Chris



Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Major to severe geomagnetic storm predicted - Dennis Glasby  11:00:55 - 12/14/2006  (61155)  (0)
     ● Re: Major to severe geomagnetic storm predicted - Roger Hunter  08:21:28 - 12/14/2006  (61154)  (1)
        ● Re: Major to severe geomagnetic storm predicted - heartland chris  11:36:26 - 12/14/2006  (61157)  (1)
           ● Re: Major to severe geomagnetic storm predicted - Dennis Glasby  17:33:52 - 12/14/2006  (61167)  (1)
              ● Re: Major to severe geomagnetic storm predicted - heartland chris  19:09:41 - 12/14/2006  (61169)  (2)
                 ● Re: Major to severe geomagnetic storm predicted - Dennis Glasby  21:51:08 - 12/15/2006  (61200)  (0)
                 ● California quiet - heartland chris  05:33:10 - 12/15/2006  (61179)  (1)
                    ● Re: California quiet - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  14:18:15 - 12/15/2006  (61190)  (1)
                       ● A big nothing - heartland chris  08:00:18 - 12/17/2006  (61246)  (0)