Results of Travel Advisory Challenge
Posted by Canie on January 11, 2001 at 11:29:37:

My original prediction list as challenged by Martin is as follows:
5 or better in the following areas by 1/10/2001

PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
TURKMENISTAN
IRAN
TAIWAN
Indonesia/PNG
Alaska
And of course the ol' 3.5+ in southern california -

Of those 8 areas 5 had quakes magnitude 5 or better as forecast. Taiwan had one on the 11th - one day outside the window.
The 2 complete failures are Iran and Southern California. (3.4 in Lonepine would be closest)
There were a total of 22 quakes 5 or better in that time frame (not counting aftershocks)

You could say there was a 62.5% accuracy rate or you could also say there was only a 23% accuracy rate. I posted areas that had quakes of magnitude 4 which could be considered foreshocks.

Below is a list of Magnitude 5 or better quakes during the Travel Advisory I posted. I did not list possible afershocks - mostly the Phillipines region.


01Jan2001 06:57:03.0 6.9N 126.6E 33 MS=7.2 M*NEI MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLAN
02Jan2001 13:03:35.0 14.9S 167.2E 93 mb=5.0 M*NEI VANUATU ISLANDS
02Jan2001 16:22:37.0 36.3N 69.0E 33 mb=5.1 M*NEI HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANI
02Jan2001 23:17:42.0 11.0S 162.3E 33 MS=5.9 M*NEI SOLOMON ISLANDS
03Jan2001 14:47:49.0 44.0N 147.6E 33 mb=5.8 M*NEI KURIL ISLANDS
04Jan2001 03:50:11.0 8.5S 108.2E 33 mb=5.4 M*NEI JAWA, INDONESIA *
04Jan2001 04:18:23.0 37.1N 138.6E 33 mb=5.6 M*NEI NEAR WEST COAST OF HONSHU
05Jan2001 08:06:46.0 15.9N 61.1W 35 mb=5.2 M*NEI LEEWARD ISLANDS
05Jan2001 11:54:15.0 0.1S 22.0W 10 mb=5.1 M*NEI CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
05Jan2001 13:58:05.0 5.7S 153.4E 33 mb=5.0 M*NEI NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
07Jan2001 06:26:56.0 59.5N 147.1E 10 mb=5.1 M*NEI EASTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
07Jan2001 06:49:01.0 40.4N 50.2E 33 mb=5.0 M*NEI CASPIAN SEA
07Jan2001 10:18:23.0 33.2S 71.3W 33 MS=5.6 M*NEI NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILI
07Jan2001 12:55:46.0 8.7S 108.8E 33 mb=5.7 M*NEI JAWA, INDONESIA
09Jan2001 01:46:04.0 15.1N 92.8W 33 mb=5.2 M*NEI MEXICO-GUATEMALA BORDER RE
09Jan2001 07:52:03.0 18.5S 176.0E 33 mb=5.5 M*NEI FIJI ISLANDS REGION
09Jan2001 15:07:18.0 10.2S 161.2E 71 mb=5.1 M NEI SOLOMON ISLANDS
09Jan2001 12:53:16.0 11.4S 165.6E 33 mb=5.0 M*NEI SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
09Jan2001 16:49:28.0 14.9S 167.1E105 Mw=6.9 M*NEI VANUATU ISLANDS
10Jan2001 16:02:42.0 57.1N 153.6W 33 MS=6.7 M*NEI KODIAK ISLAND REGION
10Jan2001 17:39:18.0 5.2S 152.8E 33 mb=5.0 M NEI NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
11Jan2001 08:37:00.0 24.3N 120.8E 33 mb=5.2 M*NEI TAIWAN

*=aftershock?

Canie


Follow Ups:
     ● Location Challenged - Michael  12:50:02 - 1/11/2001  (4476)  (3)
        ● Re: Location Challenged - Canie  15:02:00 - 1/11/2001  (4481)  (0)
        ● Re: Location Challenged BUT... - martin  13:43:41 - 1/11/2001  (4478)  (1)
           ● Inspired - Michael  14:11:54 - 1/11/2001  (4480)  (1)
              ● Offical Predictions Suck - Bob Shannon  16:13:57 - 1/11/2001  (4482)  (1)
                 ● Re: Offical Predictions Suck - Dennis Gentry of Santa Clarita  21:06:23 - 1/11/2001  (4488)  (0)
        ● beating random chance odds - Dennis Gentry of Santa Clarita  13:13:36 - 1/11/2001  (4477)  (2)
           ● heheheh...Right on Den! - Bob Shannon  16:16:10 - 1/11/2001  (4484)  (0)
           ● Standards Please - Michael  14:08:10 - 1/11/2001  (4479)  (2)
              ● Re: Standards Please - Dennis Gentry of Santa Clarita  21:16:32 - 1/11/2001  (4490)  (0)
              ● Standards--Maybe - Bob Shannon  16:21:15 - 1/11/2001  (4485)  (1)
                 ● Re: Standards-- Protocols - For Michael - Petra Challus  21:39:52 - 1/11/2001  (4492)  (1)
                    ● Re: Standards-- Protocols - For Michael - Dennis Gentry of Santa Clarita  09:38:55 - 1/12/2001  (4496)  (0)