Hi Dennis, hope your staying dry! Lost a couple of shingles off my roof last night in Bouquet Canyon, how about you? Noticed a blown down California Pepper in front of the Valencia Town Center, accross from Washington Mutual.....

Therein lies another thorny issue, but I'm not afraid ;) ... I would imagine that the standards for determining odds would have to be determined by the this group. I would be very happy to see this group determine and implement a structured method for making and analyzing predictions. As it stands now, everybody makes up their own standards, which seems counterproductive to me. I for one find it difficult to swallow many of the so called "hits" that people claim, on this board and on the other boards I have looked at, and that is usually because of the vague fuzzy nature of the predictions being made. I think I just invented a new term ... "Fuzzy Prediction" ... To sum it up, STANDARDS are the key to productive work in this field. Those standards have to be determined by the people who will be using them.

Another key to the success of this endevour is a scoreboard. A single hit beating random chance doesn't mean much, but a string of hits beating random chance makes all the difference if the world. I think a scorecard should be kept for those wanting to participate. I would be happy to put that together if anybody is interested.

I should also note that determining random chance will be subject to interpretation, as catalogs vary from one spot to the next. But, there's no reason why that the group couldn't come to an accepted method of calculation. Alan has taken the first steps along this path, but I think his method of calculation should be reviewed and agreed upon, and that a comprehensive scorecard should be created.

At this point, I mainly look at the board for the insightfull discussion regarding theory. I don't pay much attention to the predictions due to the fuzzy nature of them. The non-prediction posts are great on this board and I encourage everybody to keep it up. Don & Dennis, your posts are always interesting. I learn something new just about every day from reading them! Thanks!

I encourage anybody to submit their thoughts regarding standards and scorecards!

Michael