I would like to announce the creation of a new usenet newsgroup,

alt.earthquake.predictions

Everyone is invited to participate regardless of your opinion on earthquake prediction.

I have emailed google groups to add the group, but having more people submit requests will hopefully get them to add it quicker. If you use a normal news provider, please see the section in the FAQ below on how to request this group to be added to your NSP's groups list.

Brian
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alt.earthquake.predictions FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)
version 1.0 (updated Sept 11, 2006)
Written and maintained by Skywise - http://www.skywise711.com

Table of Contents

1.0 - Purpose of alt.earthquake.predictions (AEP)
2.0 - Moderation
3.0 - Rules
4.0 - Posting Predictions
4.1 - Location
4.2 - Magnitude
4.3 - Time Frame
4.4 - Examples Of Good Predictions
4.5 - Examples Of Bad Predictions
5.0 - Results
6.0 - Analysis
7.0 - Getting AEP Added To Your News Provider
8.0 - Anonymous Posting
9.0 - Crossposting

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1.0 Purpose of alt.earthquake.predictions (AEP)

AEP is for the posting and discussion of earthquake predictions. The
primary intent is to provide a location where earthquake predictions
can be posted in a manner which is verifiable and traceable. Also,
the discussion of said predictions and their results.

Although there are newsgroups where earthquakes are discussed, most
actively sci.geo.earthquakes, the discussions cover all aspects of
earthquakes and seismology in general. There are many web based
forums that focus on earthquake predictions, however none of these
can be considered reliable as there is evidence of edited messages.

A usenet group provides a place for predictions to be posted in a
place that is verifiable and traceable by those analyzing the
predictions. It is not possible or at least highly improbable that
any predictions posted can be altered post event. The date/time
stamp in the headers provide unambiguous proof of the time of the
prediction. Retention on NSP servers, on users local machines, and
on usenet archive sites provide a nearly permanent record of the
predictions. Lastly, unmoderated usenet groups are not subject to
the whims and biases found on many web based forums.

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2.0 Moderation

AEP is not a moderated group. That means no one is censoring your
messages because they disagree with the content.

The only way your messages may not be getting posted to AEP is
because of filtering by your NSP/ISP. Perhaps you have said something
that violates their Terms of Service agreement and they have blocked
the message.

Also, if you are not seeing messages from a particular poster, it may
be because your NSP/ISP has filters in place to block that individual
or news provider.

In either case you will have to contact your NSP or ISP to determine
what the problem is and how to fix it.

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3.0 Rules

Since AEP is a usenet group and is not moderated, the only rules
that apply are those imposed by your News Service Provider and/or
Internet Service Provider - in their Terms of Service and/or Rules
of Conduct.

However, being a usenet group, participants should behave in a manner
consistent with the established protocols of 'netiquette'. These
protocols are beyond the scope of this FAQ and can be found via a
search on the web.

A good starting point is en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netiquette

AEP is a text only newsgroup.

NO BINARIES!!! They likely won't get propogated anyway.

Post in plain text only!!! Many newsreaders will not interpret HTML
or MIME code and the recipient will end up seeing all the source
code, which is not easily readable.

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4.0 Posting Predictions

When posting an earthquake prediction it is best to be as precise
as possible. Avoid ambiguous predictions like "There's going to be
an earthquake in Japan" because you will probably just get laughed
at.

4.1 Location

There are a several good ways you can state your locations:

>Circle - Provide either a lat/lon or other form of precise location
and a distance defining a circle from that center point.

>Box - Define a box by giving lat/lon of the center of the box along
with a size in lat and lon directions in any form of measurement,
such as degrees, kilometers, miles.

4.2 Magnitude

Well specified magnitude ranges are very helpful. Typically the
magnitude should be stated as a minimum magnitude or as a specific
range between two defined magnitudes.

4.3 Time Frame

The time frame that the prediction is valid for is very important
and can be stated either as start and end date/times or as a start
date/time and length of time.

The time zone should be specified as well. Ideally, the use of UTC
aka Zulu aka GMT should be used as this is the standard used in
seismology.

4.4 Examples of Good Predictions

>Within 100km Tokyo, magnitude 5 or larger, starting
December 3rd, 2006 UTC. Window 5 days.

>Box centered on 118 west, 34 north, 1 degree wide, 1.2 degrees tall.
Magnitude 3.5 to 5.0. 4-7-06 to 4-20-06 local Pacific time.

4.5 Examples of Bad Predictions

>Big quake in Japan in three days.

>Magnitude 10.5 on Ring of Fire

>mag 4 Northern California after Nov 3rd

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5.0 Results

It's always a good idea to post your own results of your prediction
whether it be a hit or a miss. The more willing you are to admit to
failures, the more credence you will be given by those who analyze
your predictions.

Failures ARE NOT a bad thing.

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6.0 Analysis

This group is also good for discussion and analysis of earthquake
predictions and prediction methods, and discussion of methods of
analysing earthquakes.

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7.0 Getting AEP Added To Your News Provider

alt.earthquake.predictions is a properly created newsgroup with a
proper control message on file at ftp.isc.org.

ftp://ftp.isc.org/usenet/control/alt/alt.earthquake.predictions.gz

When submitting requests for this newsgroup to be added to your
newsgroup service provider (NSP) or internet service provider (ISP),
be sure to mention that the group has a control message on file with
ftp.isc.org and provide the above link. This will help assure the
addition of this group to your news server.

How quickly the group will be added depends on how quickly your
NSP updates their groups list. Typically it takes a few days.

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8.0 Anonymous Posting

Truly anonymous posting is possible, but the problem is that many
news servers block posts from anonymous gateways due to abuse. Due to
this form of cencorship, it is recommended to NOT post using an
anonymous gateway in order to increase the likelyhood of your message
being read by as many persons as possible.

However, it is still possible to post somewhat anonymously by simply
posting without using your real contact info. Simply don't post with
your real name, and use a fake return/from address.

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9.0 Crossposting

Crossposting is discouraged if for no other reason than several news
providers have filters blocking messages that are crossposted to too
many groups. Some may argue that there is never a reason to cross
post at all, ever. Others may insist on unlimited crossposting.

Experience suggests that 5 groups is the generally accepted maximum
of groups.

However, it is recommended that you limit crossposting to no more
than 3 groups because it is a known fact that at least one news
provider has filters to block any message posted to more than 3 groups
from certain other news providers.

To maximize the number of people reading your messages, don't crosspost.

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[EOF]