I think you're wrong. I believe that people would pay attention to a time- and place-specific earthquake prediction. I, for one, would.

The first big earthquake that I experienced was the Sylmar / San Fernando earthquake (about 6.6M) of February 9, 1971. We lived in Granada Hills at the time, just a few miles from the epicenter.

Even though that was 35 years ago, there's not a multi-story building that I enter, an underpass that I get stuck under in traffic, or any such overhead structure, that I don't think about what would I do in case of an earthquake. It's not a phobia; it's just an acute awareness of my surroundings. It's a basic survival instinct that was keyed into my brain at 6:00 a.m. during 60 long, long seconds of intense shaking on 2-9-71.

I work in one of the upper floors of one of the big hotel/casinos here in Las Vegas. And I park my car in a multi-level parking structure. I'm not crazy about working in a high-rise, but it's where the casino's corporate office is located -- that's where I work. One of the first things I did when I went to work there was to find out the location of all the exits -- I wouldn't want to use those elevators in case of emergency.

If some reliable source ("reliable" is the key word) came out with a prediction that a large earthquake would strike within 2-3 days, I would tele-commute or just not show up for work. If it were a KB prediction of 9 months, I'd have to ignore it. I could not go that long without showing up at work.

Did everyone who went through the experience of being near the epicenter of a large earthquake come out with that life-long impression? I doubt it -- some people are slow learners. But it sure made a believer out of me.

So bring on the real earthquake predictors -- not the charlatans, not the wanna-bes -- and the smart people will listen. Those who don't listen are too dumb anyway, and will henceforth be taken out of the breeding pool.

Barbara