Re: My Prediction For Earthquake Prediction
Posted by Cal on February 21, 2006 at 15:58:11:

Hi Don,
See below my comments. Gosh, the block is gone but I can't stay away from this site. Another addiction...

"All I ask is that when a quake prediction is made is that it be site specific."
Recently, I made a prediction that a 6.0+ would hit near Japan by the 20th of Feb., on or offshore and close to Tokyo. I had a location, time, and it was "site specific." However, the quake was only a 5.0, hit 140 miles from Tokyo--thus I get no credit.

"Too many studies have been done about Jim’s predictions and they show quite the opposite of what Jim claims. If you had done your homework you would have seen that."
I didn't want to repeat what everyone has done. Thus, I set out to interview mostly open-minded folks who follow Mr. Berkland's methods--or have their own unique methods. The book is not just the "Berkland Book." I began calling it that because Berkland is my focus. But the book is categorized as Science/Biography because I include dozens of other people. You didn't read the book so you don't know what and who I included.

"You selected only that which supported your way of thinking."
Not so again. I let many conservative and not-so conservative scientists speak out. Again, you don't have all 300 pages so you don't know my "way of thinking."

"I hope the book is a best seller"
Thank you. But it took "The Healing Powers of Vinegar" five years to make it to second edition and sell 65,000 copies. Writing and selling books is similar to predicting quakes. You have to have drive, boundless energy, patience, and passion. And you can't give up no matter what obstacles get in your way.

"but a year from now most of the people that read it still won’t be ready for the next major quake."
If my book can help some people get in gear and prepare, my work is successful."

"If they aren’t ready now they will never be ready and no book is going to change that."
True, it's difficult to make people change. However, I include so many graphic anecdotes of great quake survivors's gripping stories that I'm hoping this book is a cautionary tale for folks who think quakes can't affect their lives or hit in their own backyard.

"One person even went as far to tell me that a major quake would be a blessing in disguise. I’m still thinking on that."

As a resident at Lake Tahoe I can relate to what that person is saying. There is a joke here...We call it "poverty with a view." The middle class is fading. Thus, for some people it may seem like poetic justice if a quake happened and then other folks may be in the same situation--homeless. On the upside, one can be homeless and still have their health. Let's face it. An earthquake can and does injure people. In the chapter, "Don't Be Scared--Be Prepared!" I learned a lot from a wide range of experts, from how to cope psychologically after a quake hits and how to prepare before and during a quake strikes. Nobody on this board would know all of these facts.

My point is, I believe both prediction and preparedness can go a long way here in CA, and the other 38 states that are quake-prone, as well as other countries such as Japan, China, Pakistan and Taiwan. BTW: If I haven't told you, a few publishers abroad are interested in the book. Also, a TV crew from India came all the way to visit both Mr. Berkland and myself (and critters). Thus, we must be doing something right.

Thanks for your tame post, Don.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: My Prediction For Earthquake Prediction - Russell  16:52:43 - 2/21/2006  (34043)  (0)