Saturday morning - advisory
Posted by Dennis Gentry in Santa Clarita on June 03, 2000 at 08:54:24:

Last night I received some signals on my primary indicator that is some cause for concern.

The signals were weak and very intermittent and so I wasn't really able to get a good reading. There appeared to be multiple signals ranging in magnitude from M4 all the way up to M6. Because of the weakness I wasn't able to determine if the M6 signal was from multiple signals coming in at the same time or that it was in fact just one signal. Also, the duration of the signal wasn't enough to convince me that this will be a quake local to Southern California. It could be in some other part of the world in the M7 - M8 range.

Last night I had reported no secondary activity but that can change as signals from my primary have a 10 day window. Secondaries could stay inactive up to 7 days from now.

Based on the pattern of the signal, the potential locations for this upcoming quake are Wrightwood, California; Olanche/Ridgecrest, California areas; and the California/Nevada border region between Furnace Creek and Lake Tahoe. Possible from the Lake Tahoe area over to Redding, California.

Again, this may not be in California due to the duration of the signal, but I'll go with the following particulars:

Time window: now until 1700 6/13 UTC

Magnitude vs range in miles:
From 0 to less then 101 miles 4.5+
From 101 to less then 226 miles 4.8+
From 226 to less then 451 miles 5.1+
From 451 to less then 701 miles 5.4+

Ranges are from Saugus, California located at:

Latitude 34o 26' 20"N Longitude 118o 31' 22"W
34.43877N 118.52272W

Based on the pattern, I'll give this a 90% chance that it will occur within the above parameters.

I currently don't have the exact data available to give a probability of this quake occurring by chance. But I'm working on it.

Dennis


Follow Ups:
     ● Monday Update - Dennis Gentry in Santa Clarita  20:43:46 - 6/5/2000  (3069)  (1)
        ● Tuesday Update - Dennis Gentry in Santa Clarita  19:19:06 - 6/6/2000  (3077)  (0)
     ● Indonesia M7.9 - Dennis Gentry in Santa Clarita  16:20:30 - 6/4/2000  (3059)  (2)
        ● Re: Indonesia M7.9 (Not a hint, but a clue) - Pat In Petaluma  22:33:32 - 6/4/2000  (3064)  (1)
           ● Re: Indonesia M7.9 (Not a hint, but a clue) - Antonio Romino  10:02:50 - 6/5/2000  (3067)  (0)
        ● Re: Indonesia M7.9 - Tony  20:51:46 - 6/4/2000  (3062)  (1)
           ● Re: Indonesia M7.9 - Canie  21:41:00 - 6/4/2000  (3063)  (0)
     ● Curious to know . . . - Tony  10:43:51 - 6/3/2000  (3051)  (1)
        ● Re: Curious to know . . . - Dennis Gentry in Santa Clarita  11:17:08 - 6/3/2000  (3053)  (1)
           ● Re: Curious to know . . . - Tony  12:16:08 - 6/3/2000  (3054)  (2)
              ● Re: Curious to know . . . - Dennis Gentry in Santa Clarita  16:14:15 - 6/4/2000  (3058)  (0)
              ● Re: Curious to know . . . - Bob Shannon  14:48:59 - 6/3/2000  (3055)  (1)
                 ● Re: Curious to know . . . - Dennis Gentry in Santa Clarita  16:31:48 - 6/4/2000  (3060)  (0)