Magnitude: 4.8
From: 11/10/05 0800 UTC - To: 11/20/05 0800 UTC
Location: Petrolia California
Lat: 40.500 - Long: -124.500 - Range: 200

Hello Folks,

I'll do this just to break the ice around here. I guess I will take it from observation and make a prediction. This is a cluster prediction.

This is for the Mendocino Triple Junction at the southern end of the Gorda Plate and the terminus of the SAF. I think it will be offshore, and I think there will be a cluster of quakes there. The last 3 mag quake was there on 10/20 so the area has been in quiescence for over 20 days. I think there is a stress pattern moving north out of California, and it will express in the next ten days. That is the basis. There will be at least 7 3mag quakes, with at least one at 50 km depth. The largest quake will not be larger than 5.5, but I think it will be about 4.8Mw. These quakes will not be felt on land.

Expected analytic detraction; These could be aftershocks from the 7.2 quake earlier this summer. The period of quiescence suggests a new sequence, though.

The pattern earlier in September suggested continued activity, but I think a clear break has been made from the 7.2Mw.

Percentage of Certainty> 70%

Let's see what happens.

glen