OK Michael,

I think it will be close to a 4.8Mw, after review. There could be a larger quake, but I do not think that will be over 5.5Mw. It is in Km. Also, because I have promised to show data, I post the latest seismic records below for that area. This is important, especially in any post mortem if the prediction hits. I don't want to be accused of making an aftershock or over probabilistic prediction. The prediction starts in 8 minutes, and I see no swarm or cluster activity at this writing. Questions and comments are always appreciated.

glen

U. S. G E O L O G I C A L S U R V E Y

E A R T H Q U A K E D A T A B A S E

FILE CREATED: Thu Nov 10 00:46:37 2005
Circle Search Earthquakes= 17
Circle Center Point Latitude: 40.500N Longitude: 124.500W
Radius: 200.000 km
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: Year: 2005 - 2005 Month: 08/Day: 10 Month: 11/Day: 10
Magnitude Range: 3.0 - 9.7
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data

CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEFM DTSVNWG DIST
NFPO km
TFS

PDE-W 2005 08 13 033152.54 40.35 -124.41 13 3.00 MDNC .. . ....... 18
PDE-W 2005 08 14 192114.13 40.74 -126.44 11 3.90 mb GS .. . ....... 166
PDE-W 2005 08 21 092036.86 40.60 -126.51 6 3.10 MDNC .. . ....... 170
PDE-W 2005 08 24 191949.17 40.31 -124.55 20 3.40 MLNC .. . ....... 21
PDE-W 2005 08 25 022744.28 40.48 -124.31 27 4.20 MwNC 4F . ....... 16
PDE-W 2005 08 25 180837.80 41.26 -126.13 5 3.00 MDNC .. . ....... 161
PDE-W 2005 08 29 033853.81 40.51 -126.53 5 3.40 mb GS .. . ....... 172
PDE-W 2005 09 03 060738.84 40.78 -125.20 23 3.00 MDNC .. . ....... 66
PDE-W 2005 09 05 021218.66 40.47 -125.66 19 4.10 mb GS .. . ....... 98
PDE-W 2005 09 05 044540.09 40.98 -123.43 37 3.00 MDNC .. . ....... 105
PDE-W 2005 09 06 104646.28 40.03 -122.94 7 3.10 MDNC .. . ....... 142
PDE-W 2005 09 07 005534.70 40.44 -126.30 6 3.00 MDNC .. . ....... 152
PDE-W 2005 09 07 092506.35 40.42 -125.38 24 3.50 mb GS .. . ....... 75
PDE-W 2005 09 10 191007.17 40.56 -124.60 26 3.40 MLNC .. . ....... 10
PDE-Q 2005 09 29 184900.86 40.81 -126.11 5 3.20 mb GS .. . ....... 140
PDE-Q 2005 10 17 032922 39.15 -123.12 8 3.10 MLNC 4F . ....... 190
PDE-Q 2005 10 20 162650 41.03 -123.32 35 4.00 MwBRK .. M ....... 115

Last 3+ quake occured on the 20th of October, just so we are all on the same sheet.