Re: Diary of an Earthquake Sensitive
Posted by Roger Musson on March 01, 2000 at 13:49:59:

I see a problem, and it's a need for consistency. Let us assume, for the sake of argument, that earthquake sensitivity is a real phenomenon (by no means proven, given the lack of any rigorous quantitative evidence). What might be the cause? The usual explanation offered is a physical one, namely that earthquakes have some associated magnetic or electrical precursor which certain people or animals may be able to react to, even at quite long distances.

Now, if this is the case, the presence or absence, and the strength, of such precursors must be related to some physical property of the earthquake source, and one would certainly expect the size of the source and the strength of the precursor to have some positive relationship. But the number of fatalities is not so directly related to these, being more controlled by location with respect to vulnerable populations. This is where early earthquake sensitives (pre-Internet) tended to come unstuck. They tended to mistake those earthquakes reported by the newspapers and TV as the only ones happening, whereas these were only the few most newsworthy ones. They would therefore claim to have predicted relatively slight events with a high media profile, but never the much larger events in remote parts of the globe.

However, one can posit another explanation to allow people to predict only the "killer quakes" - that the collective unconscious of millions of people living above a fault about to break might send out a sort of "psychic scream" that could be picked up by people with a high degree of psychic awareness. That presupposes a lot of parapsychology, but let's allow it as potentially possible for the moment. The problem now (I've seen it) is that the earthquake sensitive makes a prediction on this basis, and when it fails, tries to fall back on explanation number one and say that the signal relates to some other large earthquake in the right time window but which never did more than rattle the tea-cups.

The point is, you can't have it both ways. Most people would regard any sort of earthquake sensitivity with some scepticism. The idea that someone could have TWO remarkable abilities, both totally different in operation, but with exactly the same highly specialised effect, is improbable beyond belief.

This isn't intended as a criticism of the previous post, but a general statement of an issue that needs to be dealt with.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Diary of an Earthquake Sensitive - Pat In Petaluma  21:28:45 - 3/1/2000  (2687)  (2)
        ● Re: Diary of an Earthquake Sensitive - Roger Musson  08:05:31 - 3/2/2000  (2689)  (2)
           ● Re: Diary of an Earthquake Sensitive - Canie  22:54:59 - 3/2/2000  (2696)  (0)
           ● Re: For Roger - Pat In Petaluma  17:44:32 - 3/2/2000  (2692)  (0)
        ● Re: P S For Roger - Pat In Petaluma  05:20:24 - 3/2/2000  (2688)  (0)