March 28,

Shan's prediction (pasted back in below) is correct on location (he says 5.65 S, the quake epicenter was 2 N but at M8.7 must have ruptured to south of the equator, so I won't quibble on location. It is correct on magnitude (8.7 is between 8.5 and 9, and Shan gave himself +/-1). It is correct on time because it is within 180 hours (barely).

Do I regret posting qualification on the prediction? No....my words were chosen carefully.

So, what to make of this? Maybe Roger will want to take a harder look at Shan's prediction record? Personally, I simply cannot believe that sun on a wall can be used to predict distant earthquakes.....I would have a much easier time with just a psychic prediction. What are the odds by chance? depends on how you do it.....this was a 5 day window....if you think there was a 25% chance that there would be a M8+ quake within 3 years...that's about 1000 days...so 5 out of 1000 is 1 chance out of 200. 25% of that is something like 1 chance out of 800 that this was by chance (statistics are a little more complicated than this but this is close enough?). You also have to look at unsuccessful predictions of large quakes....if someone was to keep predicting large quakes the odds of getting one of them would be higher...

But, overall, it might be worth paying some attention to this prediction.
Chris

part of Shan's post:
Hi all,

Earthmovement comprising 20th and 21st March 2005, indicates that GREAT QUAKE of 9+M on its way within couple of days due to new moon alignment, I strongly suspect.

Since it may exceeding 7M, possibility for TSUNAMI over Sumatra,Java, Maldives, North / West Australia, India, Sri Lanka, Maldives & East African countries as before like Dec. 26th quake, I believe.

Also I suspect series of quakes will ready to occur from Andaman to Northern Sumatra and details were available in my websites now.

Prediction details:
Suspect around quake over 8.5 to 9+M

SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA (5.65S 102.69E) Probability 80%
and / or
HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN (36.38N 71.51E) Probability 20%

may occur within 48 to 180 hours from 04.30 UTC on 21st March 2005.