This post is not intended for just John, but I thought it was a good place to put this in line.

I think sometimes the "big picture" is missed when trying to evaluate predictions based on whatever method is flying through at the time. In Shan's case he is using sunlight on a wall of his house and yet is somehow able to pick a time window that is very close and predict a large earthquake. Let's face it, anyone could have thrown up 180 hours for months and still not hit it, but Shan did.

We have to question the pecking order of prediction when we something like this. Is there anyone else out there who did it better? I don't know yet, but I haven't heard of anyone. JOB will claim it as a hit as he always has a 7.0 or greater in the Ring of Fire, but Shan's is still far and away a better prediction. The other part we should consider is that this was not really in the aftershock zone of Banda Aceh though now it will be considered one.

Then we have to consider if his warning had reached that region and people had accepted it as a "heads up" and expected this quake, would they have benefitted from it and my assessment is "yes, they would have." I don't know the area in particular, but as Shan's window is not that long, it wouldn't have hurt to anyone there to hear it.

So before everyone picks Shans prediction apart, have a look at in the overall context of usefulness and I think it has more merit than perhaps some are giving it.

Petra