Re: Personal Q. about big N.Cal. Quake
Posted by Todd on April 21, 2004 at 15:55:04:

I'm sure your crib will do fine...

IMO, and I'm not a seismologist, but IMO only I don't think the Bay Area is going to shake anytime soon like some think (or wish) it would. I have this feeling that the region is still in its seismic sleep from 06 and will reawaken bigtime maybe in another 50 years? I know after the increase in the 80s everyone thought the region was on this huge rise of activity but after Loma Prieta, we've haven't seen a whole lot. So perhaps the 1980s was just one small window of increased activity. Studies have show that some of these faults can go 200, 250 and 300 years without rupturing. I predict a similar scenario for Roger's Creek and Hayward...I.E. not for another 50 or 100 years.

I do however, feel that S. Cal is on an increase of activity and will culminate in clusters of 6 and 7 magnitude quakes every 2-3 years for the next 20 to 30 years. The climax being a big 8 on that Southern San Andreas, then Socal will go to sleep like the bay did for the next century.

Anyway, just my prediction, if I lived up north I wouldn't be too worried.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Personal Q. about big N.Cal. Quake - Don in Hollister  19:37:44 - 4/21/2004  (21578)  (1)
        ● Re: Personal Q. about big N.Cal. Quake - Cathryn  17:15:44 - 4/25/2004  (21616)  (0)
     ● Re: Personal Q. about big N.Cal. Quake - Cathryn  18:52:47 - 4/21/2004  (21577)  (1)
        ● Re: Personal Q. about big N.Cal. Quake - Todd  10:21:43 - 4/23/2004  (21587)  (2)
           ● Re: Personal Q. about big N.Cal. Quake - Cathryn  17:20:32 - 4/25/2004  (21617)  (2)
              ● Malibu quakes - chris in suburbia  08:48:01 - 4/26/2004  (21622)  (1)
                 ● Re: Malibu quakes - Cathryn  22:36:52 - 4/26/2004  (21628)  (0)
              ● Re: Personal Q. about big N.Cal. Quake - Canie  18:48:35 - 4/25/2004  (21619)  (1)
                 ● Re: Personal Q. about big N.Cal. Quake - Cathryn  22:32:49 - 4/26/2004  (21626)  (1)
                    ● Re: Personal Q. about big N.Cal. Quake - Todd  10:07:11 - 4/27/2004  (21629)  (0)
           ● Re: Personal Q. about big N.Cal. Quake - chris in suburbia  14:29:18 - 4/23/2004  (21589)  (0)