Team

My understanding is that the unpredicted second massive Chinese quake almost killed the effort to predict quakes there.

Here is a second thought: If we can estimate the predictability of all earthquakes, would that help in social acceptance/credibility of non-100%earthquake prediction, particularly by agencies carrying that responsibility?

An example: at midnight UTC this morning there was a marked plunge in the solar electron flux, with blue above red, and even gold below blue.
In my scheme this means a big quake above the Equator. Indeed, there have been two, but 5M quakes, either possibly a foreshock. Proton flux remains on the floor, geomag activity is below threshold.

The levels of predictability, of course, include time, place and magnitude, each of which must be considered in any estimation of predictability, but one or two of which might give the public a handle on predictability and/or credibility.

Both predictability and credibility are bottom line phenomena.

Donald