Hi Roger,

I have been following this effort. There is another report with somewhat similar conclusions which I received a few days ago from a statistics expert in Europe. Its information is supposed to go onto a Web page for display at Shan’s Web sites. And I prepared a preliminary version of that page several weeks ago. But for the past week or so I have been busy trying to update my own Web pages with information which was in my presentation at that China conference. That effort will probably take part of this week.

We could probably also include your evaluation results on that Web page if you are interested. Unlike me (and you) that other statistics expert is actually a geologist.

Once again, I will express the opinion that it is earthquake forecasting politics which is delaying the development of effective earthquake forecasting technology and programs rather than science. And to offer what I consider to be a type of proof of that I will point out the following. These are personal opinions.

*** Your probability program would not yet have been developed if it were not for my personal efforts. In response to your note posted here about developing it I said “let’s do it” and then worked with you on developing a program format, with getting it tested and debugged, and with circulating information regarding its existence.

*** The data table which you used to evaluate Shan’s forecasting procedure would never have been compiled if it were not for my personal efforts. I got all of the necessary parties introduced to one another. And then I myself edited the English language translation of the evaluation report at Shan’s Web site. If you look at the report you will see my other “pen name” mentioned several times in it.

That particular project was mentally exhausting. It can be quite difficult to read another person’s research report, determine exactly what he or she was trying to say, and then prepare a “translation” of the original report. It took a while.

As I have been saying, in order to make more rapid progress with earthquake science we need to do better with dealing with all of the earthquake forecasting politics. And I feel that the facts that your probability program, Shan’s data file, and your and that other statistics expert’s reports or results now exist is proof that I am right about that.

In line with that opinion I circulated one international “political” type earthquake forecasting research recommendation last week and plan to continue with that type of effort. That particular project involves developing some relatively simple earthquake research related computer programs and a support Web site. You might be interested. I am planning to discuss the effort here sooner or later.

Finally, a personal thanks for doing all of that work. I expect that in some large or small way it should help move things forward.