Earthquake forecasting research in India and China
Posted by EQF on December 08, 2003 at 08:20:03:

This is just a short note regarding these subjects. More details might be provided later.

EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING IN INDIA

Shan has developed a forecasting program which relies on observing the sun shadow position on a vertical wall and comparing any deviations from the expected path of the shadow with similar data for past earthquakes.

A major problem for that program in the past was the fact that there was no way to effectively determine how well it was working. The first step in solving that problem has now been taken.

This is the address of the first page of a 4 part report discussing some of the details of Shan's procedure:

http://earthquake.itgo.com/chen1.htm

And there is information in the report regarding how people can obtain an Excel spreadsheet file which contains summarized data for Shan's forecasts for a several month period of time.

Now that those data are available research can get underway regarding checking to see his program does actually produce the type of data which earthquake forecasters need to have in order to tell when and where one is likely to occur.

The report at that Web site is just introductory. It does not yet represent a thorough analysis of his data.

Additionally, he has a new and nicely formatted mirror site at the following address:

http://shanquakeforecast.com

Nice going Shan!

EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING IN CHINA

This is the Web site for a research group in the People's Republic of China which is using a fairly sophisticated looking electromagnetic energy field type earthquake precursor detector called an MDCB instrument. The instrument exists in a number of forms.

http://mdcb.nease.net/Mdcb.htm

The information at that Web site is in Chinese. But at least you can see what it looks like.

I have an English language report which is largely a translation of the Chinese text at that Web site. And it contains some background and theory information. If time permits I am hoping to store a copy of it at one of my Web sites so that other people can review it.

They are I believe monitoring ground and atmospheric electromagnetic energy field fluctuations in the 0 to 50 cycles per second range. I believe that MDCB instrument has a range of something like 2000 km and can detect signals as deep as 10,000 meters in the ground.

The data are quite interesting. They have been running the program for perhaps a dozen years and have developed procedures for telling when and where earthquakes are likely to occur and what their magnitude will be. The instruments indicates in which direction the precursor signal is strongest. And under ideal conditions they use two or more of them with a triangulation process to tell where the earthquake will occur.

There are quite a few already in operation in China. And I believe that they have a few installed in other countries and are planning to expand that effort.

I felt that that the report's data on solar and geomagnetic energy fields and how they interact with earthquake fault zones were invaluable to my own forecasting efforts.


Follow Ups:
     ● Important discovery? - Earthquake triggering effects - EQF  02:21:49 - 12/9/2003  (20379)  (1)
        ● Re: Important discovery? - Earthquake triggering effects - Don in Hollister  10:05:32 - 12/9/2003  (20380)  (2)
           ● Re: Important discovery? - Earthquake triggering effects - EQF  14:26:18 - 12/9/2003  (20388)  (0)
           ● magnetic reversals - chris in suburbia  11:43:45 - 12/9/2003  (20381)  (0)