Re: Progress Report - EQ Prediction
Posted by Todd on November 21, 2003 at 15:57:35:

Petra,

In a way you are totally obsessed and I feel your obession is taking a turn for the worst in terms of how you are filtering information. If you want to be a humanitarian and save people from life threatening situations, then help w/ Cancer and AIDS charities. Earthquakes as a whole don't kill that significant # of people compared to other catastrophies that are in the world.

You seem obsessed with coming up w/ prediction so that the masses can be evacuated. You know what? People don't care. I've also noticed the human race is very a very resiliant group when it comes to earthquakes. In having lived in San Francisco and LA, I've noticed, people get over the shaking really fast! Its important to understand that society is not demanding prediction or warning. If they were, they'd ALL be on this site, don't you think?

You and Don constantly gang up on EQF, but I don't understand why. I found it particularly interesting when EQF made a forecast 2 weeks ago, and you and Don said statistically speaking this could happen no matter what. Then, you guys start posting quakes in various regions of the Pacific rim and what the stats are to them happening. Yet, whenever you guys make a prediction, for quakes in the 1-3 range of all magnitudes, you seem put out when people don't acknowledge them or apply a statistics model of their own as to their probabilities. Not to mention, a quake in the 1-3 range is a very real possibility anywhere in CA. EQF forecasted a major quake in the Pacific rim, is somewhat more specific than saying a 1+ quake is going to hit a certain part of CA, right?

You say that you want to save lives, yet you are always saying how hopeful you are that you can feel an earthquake....????. Doesn't make sense. I've sometimes wondered what you would do if earthquakes ceased to exist.

Finally, you are very tough to take seriously...I read everything you say and sometimes, frankly, its hilarious. From the visions, to the time you were at some intersection feeling a sense of doom, none of it is progression in earthquake prediction. For awhile, I tried hard to try and accept this side to you and see where you were coming from. But after you engaged EQF on so many occasions...I thought to myself, how dare this woman who says the crazy statements she does have the nerve to criticize someone who is trying to establish a model of some sort. When I first found the group, I found EQFs comments very hard to follow, maybe frustrating at times as well. But for the past 3 years, week by week, when I read his vs. yours, a very clear pictures emerges.

This board is great, but those who use it for science and prediction need to have some detachment to human life and feelings. This isn't like we are fighting drunk driving, where everytime there is an accident, it is so frustrating because of the level that it could have been prevented. Earthquakes will always be w/ us, most people don't care! Enjoy life and do your best to forecast as a hobby.

Todd


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Progress Report - EQ Prediction - Petra Nova Challus  17:29:45 - 11/21/2003  (20204)  (1)
        ● When Worlds Collide - Cathryn  22:19:44 - 11/21/2003  (20211)  (1)
           ● Re: When Worlds Collide - EQF  23:12:26 - 11/21/2003  (20216)  (0)