Re: A note to Mitch Battros
Posted by Don in Hollister on January 05, 2003 at 20:31:15:

Hi EQF. I’m kind of a funny person. I like to know when the next major quake is going to occur in my neighborhood. It’s not that I’m not concerned about others, but I have learned that if you don’t care of number one no one else is going to do it for you.

I know you don’t get many large quakes where you live, but I can tell you one thing. When you do it’s going to be more devastating then anything we have here in California. Once more it won’t even have to be as large as some of the ones we have had.

I have talked with many seismologists about earthquake prediction in California and to the person they all say they can’t predict them because they don’t have anything solid that will tell them when and where the next major quake will occur. They can give you a general idea, but nothing you can take to the bank. There just isn’t enough data for them to work with.

If you do as you say you will do in that you will give them the program they can use then maybe, and I do mean maybe, we will see some quakes being predicted. However if they are any kind of a scientist worthy of being called a scientist they are going to test the data and retest the data over and over again to insure that it works better then random chance. If there are to many false alarms, or to many generalizations, it will never get off the ground. Take Care…Don in creepy town


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: A note to Mitch Battros - EQF  23:14:53 - 1/5/2003  (17721)  (1)
        ● Re: quake forecasting - Canie  07:54:22 - 1/6/2003  (17725)  (2)
           ● Re: quake forecasting - EQF  10:11:49 - 1/7/2003  (17732)  (1)
              ● Re: quake forecasting - Canie  16:25:17 - 1/7/2003  (17740)  (1)
                 ● Quake forecasting on daily basis! - R.Shanmugasundaram  16:20:24 - 1/9/2003  (17763)  (1)
                    ● Re: Quake forecasting on daily basis! - EQF  17:45:16 - 1/9/2003  (17766)  (1)
                       ● Re: Quake forecasting on daily basis! - R.Shanmugasundaram  14:49:01 - 1/10/2003  (17774)  (0)
           ● Re: quake forecasting - R.Shanmugasundaram  17:52:27 - 1/6/2003  (17730)  (0)