Easter egg winner is....
Posted by Roger Hunter on April 02, 2002 at 12:15:58:

Greetings contestants;

Because of the large number of potential hits for some of these,
I have deleted all but the "best fit" results.


1 . Canie
2002/3 /31 - 2002/4 /1 35.633 -119.2051.7 2.5 40 Prob. 6.68%


Best date 2002/04/01 02:23:27.98 36.2393 -120.4147 2.34 0
Best dist 2002/03/31 17:08:15.54 35.2053 -118.6263 1.68 70.732656
Best size 2002/03/31 08:29:15.40 34.0625 -116.7220 2.54 2.54
Best prob 2002/03/31 18:23:45.25 35.2257 -118.5870 1.78 Prob. 45.5%


2 . Canie
2002/4 /1 - 2002/4 /1 17 -103 4.5 9.9 50 Prob. 0%


The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
None found.


3 . Cathryn
2002/3 /30 - 2002/4 /1 34.24 -116.89 3 4.5 50 Prob. 15.1%


Best date 2002/03/30 02:01:55.54 32.5105 -115.2355 3.12 1.5
Best dist 2002/03/30 13:50:51.71 33.1947 -116.7280 3.84 117.09372
Best size 2002/03/30 13:50:51.71 33.1947 -116.7280 3.84 3.84
Best prob 2002/03/30 13:50:51.71 33.1947 -116.7280 3.84 Prob. 35.4%


4 . Cathryn
2002/4 /1 - 2002/4 /1 36.44 -97.86 1.6 2.6 50 Prob. 0%


The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
None found.


5 . Chris
2002/3 /31 - 2002/4 /1 33.35 -115.75 3 4.5 10 Prob. .438%


The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
None found.


6 . Don
2002/3 /30 - 2002/4 /1 33.4 -117.1 2 3 35 Prob. 29.0%


Best date 2002/03/31 08:29:15.40 34.0625 -116.7220 2.54 .5
Best dist 2002/03/30 14:50:47.47 33.1995 -116.7275 2.05 41.141813
Best size 2002/03/30 13:50:51.71 33.1947 -116.7280 3.84 3.84
Best prob 2002/03/30 14:50:47.47 33.1995 -116.7275 2.05 Prob. 33.0%


7 . Michael
2002/3 /29 - 2002/4 /2 36.23 -89.44 2 3.5 100 Prob. 17.7%


The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
None found.


8 . Petra
2002/3 /30 - 2002/4 /1 35.02 -119 1.3 2.3 40 Prob. 61.5%


Best date 2002/03/31 00:45:06.88 34.0813 -117.2287 1.00 .5
Best dist 2002/03/31 17:08:15.54 35.2053 -118.6263 1.68 39.71499
Best size 2002/03/30 13:50:51.71 33.1947 -116.7280 3.84 3.84
Best prob 2002/03/31 17:08:15.54 35.2053 -118.6263 1.68 Prob. 61.5%


9 . Petra
2002/3 /30 - 2002/4 /1 40.6 -123.45 1.7 2.7 60 Prob. 40.8%


Best date 2002/03/31 09:35:33.96 38.8532 -122.8303 1.40 .5
Best dist 2002/03/30 08:04:13.20 39.3647 -122.8632 1.74 146.04935
Best size 2002/04/01 08:44:22.87 44.1060 -128.8940 4.50 4.5
Best prob 2002/03/30 08:04:13.20 39.3647 -122.8632 1.74 Prob. 95.0%

I don't quite know how to judge the winner here. By strict interpretation
of the rules, Canie and Petra have the only hits on April 1. Canie's is a
perfect date fit, Petra has the larger magnitude.

Widening the window, Don has the lowest probability hit.

Lowell, it's your egg; you call it.

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Easter egg winner is.... - Lowell  12:47:43 - 4/2/2002  (14511)  (1)
        ● Re: Easter egg winner is.... - Roger Hunter  16:27:11 - 4/2/2002  (14518)  (2)
           ● Re: Easter egg winner is.... - low  18:03:59 - 4/2/2002  (14522)  (1)
              ● Re: Easter egg winner is.... - Lowell  18:05:11 - 4/2/2002  (14523)  (0)
           ● Re: Easter egg winner is.... - low  17:59:57 - 4/2/2002  (14519)  (1)
              ● Re: Easter egg winner is.... - Roger Hunter  18:03:59 - 4/2/2002  (14521)  (1)
                 ● Re: Easter egg winner is.... - Lowell  18:07:00 - 4/2/2002  (14524)  (1)
                    ● Re: Easter egg winner is.... - Roger Hunter  19:57:01 - 4/2/2002  (14529)  (1)
                       ● Re: Easter egg winner is.... - Lowell  00:18:20 - 4/4/2002  (14564)  (1)
                          ● Re: Easter egg winner is.... - Roger Hunter  04:06:16 - 4/4/2002  (14565)  (2)
                             ● If I force it... - Roger Hunter  04:42:17 - 4/4/2002  (14567)  (1)
                                ● Re: If I force it... - Canie  09:22:51 - 4/4/2002  (14575)  (0)
                             ● That wasn't it. - Roger Hunter  04:34:20 - 4/4/2002  (14566)  (1)
                                ● Re: That wasn't it. - Lowell  08:11:48 - 4/4/2002  (14569)  (1)
                                   ● Re: That wasn't it. - Lowell  08:16:34 - 4/4/2002  (14570)  (1)
                                      ● Re: That wasn't it. - Roger Hunter  09:25:19 - 4/4/2002  (14576)  (1)
                                         ● This is it - Roger Hunter  09:35:09 - 4/4/2002  (14578)  (2)
                                            ● FINALLY! This really IS it! - Roger Hunter  09:47:22 - 4/4/2002  (14581)  (0)
                                            ● Re: This is it - Roger Hunter  09:37:43 - 4/4/2002  (14579)  (0)