Also consider Don's forecast in that twosome
Posted by Lowell on April 01, 2002 at 10:52:07:

Petra,
I had noticed that event, but thought the earthquake several days ago in the same region
Was actually a better match. Anyway, good going on your progress in determining the
Ear tone message.
For those of you who are interested, I will remind you that Petra and Don had somewhat
Of a contest between them for the closest match to an event off the Coast of Oregon or
California. As it turns out, an event which generally matches Don 's forecast occurred
About 4 minutes after the earthquake Petra has described in her post.
That later event occurred with NEIS parameters:

O: 01APR2002 08:44:22 44.1N 128.9W MB=4.5 OFF COAST OF OREGON

Don's forecast had been for a Ml 4-5 within two days of March 24

F: 24MAR2002 +/-2 day 42.3N 129.9W M 4.0-5.0 Off COAST OF OREGON (within 35 km)

See post 13950 in archives or below for Don's original forecast:

Brookings, Oregon Earthquake Forecast (4.0-5.0)
Posted by Don In Hollister on March 20, 2002 at 10:48:29:

Magnitude: 4.0-5.0Ml
From: 03/22/2002UTC - To: 03/26/2002UTC
Location: Brookings, Oregon
Lat: 42.3N - Long: 129.9W - Range: 35Km

Hi All. I'm back in the States now. I had to replenish my supply of raw onions and garlic.
Will also have to get some more Corona Beer.

Looking for a 4.0 to 5.0 quake at 42.3N/129.9W. This is about 450Km west of Brookings, Oregon.

Should occur on 03/24/2002. The window will open on 03/22/2002 and will close on
03/26/2002.

The radius for this will be 35Km. Take Care…Don in creepy town

http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/bulletin.html



Follow Ups:
     ● Evaluation - Problem! - Roger Hunter  11:26:37 - 4/1/2002  (14445)  (3)
        ● I've Got A Better Idea - Petra Challus  18:27:25 - 4/1/2002  (14471)  (1)
           ● Re: I've Got A Better Idea - Roger Hunter  18:44:21 - 4/1/2002  (14473)  (0)
        ● What about informal predictions - should they be evaluated? - Lowell  11:41:48 - 4/1/2002  (14448)  (1)
           ● Re: What about informal predictions - should they be evaluated? - Roger Hunter  12:00:07 - 4/1/2002  (14451)  (0)
        ● Re: Evaluation - Problem! - Lowell  11:33:09 - 4/1/2002  (14446)  (1)
           ● Re: Evaluation - Problem! - Roger Hunter  11:38:46 - 4/1/2002  (14447)  (1)
              ● Re: Evaluation - Problem! - Lowell  11:46:59 - 4/1/2002  (14449)  (1)
                 ● Solution found - Roger Hunter  11:56:30 - 4/1/2002  (14450)  (0)