Hi contestants;

Here are the calculated probabilities for your entries, based on a 5 year NEIC database of all quakes from 1997 - 2001 inclusive.

That's 108271 quakes which explains why it took 15 minutes to do this (4 passes per prediction).

1 . Canie
2002/3 /18 - 2002/3 /25 33.35 -118 4.5 9.9 30 Prob. 0%

2 . Canie
2002/3 /18 - 2002/3 /25 33.35 116.5 5 9.9 40 Prob. 0%

3 . Cathryn
2002/3 /18 - 2002/3 /25 37.8 -118.7 2 3.5 50 Prob. 65.5%

4 . Cathryn
2002/3 /18 - 2002/3 /25 33.6 -117.9 2 4 50 Prob. 13.1%

5 . Don
2002/3 /18 - 2002/3 /22 39.4 -121.2 1.7 3 35 Prob. .273%

6 . Don
2002/3 /21 - 2002/3 /25 46.3 13.1 3 4.5 65 Prob. 12.2%

7 . Petra
2002/3 /20 - 2002/3 /24 36.02 -120.9 2 3.3 40 Prob. 5.73%

As you can see, if Canie gets one right she will win. On the other hand, you could guess she has no chance of winning!

Time will tell.

Roger