The problem with using long term averages is they do not take into account aftershocks.
Canie's event at 118W could be considered an aftershock of the Mb 4.6 near there
several days ago. It would seem the probability of such an event within a week of
another is probably much higher than 0%. But that's the way the probability crumbles.
Good luck to all.
I would have joined you in the fun and games, but regulations being what they are
etc. etc. ...