Re: Contest probabilities
Posted by Lowell on March 18, 2002 at 14:28:39:

The problem with using long term averages is they do not take into account aftershocks.
Canie's event at 118W could be considered an aftershock of the Mb 4.6 near there
several days ago. It would seem the probability of such an event within a week of
another is probably much higher than 0%. But that's the way the probability crumbles.
Good luck to all.
I would have joined you in the fun and games, but regulations being what they are
etc. etc. ...


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Contest probabilities - Roger Hunter  15:59:50 - 3/18/2002  (13903)  (2)
        ● Re: Contest probabilities - Roger Hunter  18:09:51 - 3/18/2002  (13915)  (0)
        ● Re: Contest probabilities - Canie  16:12:46 - 3/18/2002  (13905)  (1)
           ● Re: Contest probabilities - Roger Hunter  16:17:24 - 3/18/2002  (13907)  (1)
              ● Re: Contest probabilities - Canie  16:32:26 - 3/18/2002  (13909)  (1)
                 ● Re: Contest probabilities - Lowell  16:36:59 - 3/18/2002  (13910)  (0)