Hi Jen,
I presume you are referring to the forecast posted by Don in
Hollister for Masteren (sic) - I'm sure that should have been
Masterton, N.Z. Thanks for reminding me that I needed to evaluate
these predictions - so here goes.

First, today's earthquake occurred as follows:

O: 24Nov2001 06:30 41.1S 175.1E ML=3.5 IGNS SE of Upper Hutt, N.Z.

Don's forecast had been for an event of Ml 2.5-3.7 within 80 km of
41.1S 175.6E (Masterton) between Nov. 9 and 13. For this event,
the magnitude and location are within the stated limits, as this
event occurred about 40 km to the west of Don's epicenter, however,
the timing was considerably off (10 days out of Don's window of
acceptance).
I should point out, however, that the following moderate earthquakes occurred
between Nov 9 and Nov 15 which are equally good matches to this forecast
and are better in the temporal aspect than today's event:

1: 09NOV2001 04:56:38 41.5S 173.4E Ml=5.3 IGNS SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.
Note (IGNS): Felt in the northern part of the South Islan and at Wellington.
2: 09NOV2001 11:48:24 40.7S 174.7E ML=4.7 IGNS COOK STRAIT, NEW ZEALAND.
3: 13NOV2001 05:36:03 41.7S 173.8E ML=3.8 IGNS SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.
4: 15NOV2001 15:59:53 40.4S 175.4E ML=3.8 IGNS NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.
Note (IGNS): Felt at Foxton.

Event 1 falls 180 km to the southwest of Don's epicenter, but is a
significant regional event as a Ml 5.3 near Wellington. It occurs
within the time frame, but is larger than the predicted event.

Event 2 lies at 79 km from Don's predicted epicenter, but is larger
than expected although it does fall within the time window.

Event 3 lies at 170 km to the southwest of Don's expected event, but
within the time and magnitude limits.

Event 4 lies at 79 km from the predicted event and within the magnitude
limits, but falls outside the time window by two days.

The area certainly did experience a strong increase in activity
during the 5-day interval noted by Don in his prediction, however
none of the events were an exact match with Don's prediction. On
the whole, however, this forecast get a high "B+" rating.

On the Gisborne forecast posted at the same time, IGNS reported
a number of events (without magnitudes) for the period Nov 10-14
near 38-39S 175-177E. It is not possible to evaluate Don's prediction
since no magnitudes were assigned to these events. However, it
does seem likely that at least one of these occurred with Ml>=3.5
at a distance within 80 km of the predicted epicenter.

Probability on Foxton/Masterton Event:

In the past 6 months only 2 events have been reported in QED in Don's
Masterton region with Ml>=2. There have been 36 5-day periods during
this 6-month interval so the probability of success is 2/36 or about
odds of 1 in 18 for success. The Ml 4.7 on Nov 9 was the largest
event listed within 80 km of Don's predicted epicenter since a Ml 4.8
on May 31, 1996. Not a bad forecast, after all, I guess.

Don's original forecast had been (Post #10719, posted Nov. 5, 2001)

Gisborne, New Zealand Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on November 05, 2001 at 15:39:30:

Magnitude: 3.5-4.5
From: 11/10/2001UTC - To: 11/14/2001UTC
Location: Gisborne, New Zealand
Lat: 38.4S - Long: 178.0E - Range: 80Km

Hi All. Here are my long shots for the day, but I have the feeling they
won't be the only one. This one is at 38.4S/178.0E.
This is about 40Km north of Gisborne, New Zealand. It should be in the range
of 3.5 to 4.5 and should occur on 11/12/2001. The window opens on 11/10/2001
and will close on 11/14/2001. The radius on this will be 80Km.

The other one is also in New Zealand. It should be at 41.1S/175.6E. This is
about 16Km south of Masteren, New Zealand.
It should be in the range of 2.5 to 3.7 and should occur on 11/11/2001. The
window opens on 11/09/2001 and will close on 11/13/2001. The radius on this
will be 80Km. Take Care...Don in creepy town