Was that the 3 files you sent? quake data, amit's list, and your program?

I'm purposely avoiding looking at your code so I am not biased. I'm trying to make my own based on first principles.

Also, I'm not analyzing amits predictions.

Anyway, of course the program runs. The problem is the output.

What I did was set it to show all possible results of 5 predictions, 0 through 5 hits.

What I see is ONLY the Jones Score sum changes. Everything else stays the same, except the final score. And, the final score only changes in a linear manner.

If I've implemented your instructions correctly, there is either something wrong with your instructions, or something wrong with the Jone method.

I would expect to see a Bell Curve like result in the final score, with the hump (or dip) centered on chance result.

I've included the output here again so you don't have to search the messages. The "difference" column simply shows the difference in the final score for that line from the one above it. Of course, the first one is meaningless. But as you see from the numbers, the difference is constant and linear.

Brian

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
reading file...
 3  H:/Geo/earthquakes/Catalogs/ANSS catalog/ANSS 6.5 and up 1980 thru 2012.txt
  Start Date: 2444239.50000000
    End Date: 2456293.50000000
   Time Span:  12055 days
total quakes:  1217
--------------------------------------------------
computing Jones probability...
      Window Size:  3 days
      No. Windows:  4018.3333333333
      Window Hits:  959
Jones Probability:  .23865615927001
====================================================================================================
JProb | hit | JonesScore | ExpectedValue |  Variance  |
-------------------------------------------------------
0.239 |  1  |  1.4327314 |   0.1343344   |  0.5284536 |  
0.239 |  1  |  1.4327314 |   0.1343344   |  0.5284536 |  
0.239 |  1  |  1.4327314 |   0.1343344   |  0.5284536 |  
0.239 |  0  | -0.2726702 |   0.1343344   |  0.5284536 |  
0.239 |  0  | -0.2726702 |   0.1343344   |  0.5284536 |  
-------------------------------------------------------
      Sums: |  3.7528539 |   0.6716720   |  2.6422678 | 
-------------------------------------------------------
       Standard Deviation:   1.6255054
-------------------------------------------------------
         Normalized Score:   1.8955224
====================================================================================================
new stuff....
jones score for a miss: -.27267019566049
jones score for a hit :  1.43273142706372
        expected value:  .13433440563172
              variance:  .52845356202693
predictions:  5
success | jones score sum |   expected sum  |   variance sum  |   standard dev  | normalized score | difference
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     0  |   -1.3633509783 |    0.6716720282 |    2.6422678101 |    1.6255054014 |   -1.2519324788  | -1.25193247875338
     1  |    0.3420506444 |    0.6716720282 |    2.6422678101 |    1.6255054014 |   -0.2027808603  |  1.04915161844783
     2  |    2.0474522671 |    0.6716720282 |    2.6422678101 |    1.6255054014 |    0.8463707581  |  1.04915161844783
     3  |    3.7528538899 |    0.6716720282 |    2.6422678101 |    1.6255054014 |    1.8955223766  |  1.04915161844783
     4  |    5.4582555126 |    0.6716720282 |    2.6422678101 |    1.6255054014 |    2.9446739950  |  1.04915161844783
     5  |    7.1636571353 |    0.6716720282 |    2.6422678101 |    1.6255054014 |    3.9938256135  |  1.04915161844783
--------------------------------------------------
run time:   0.687
done.
--------------------------------------------------