OK. To start over...

I just downloaded from the ANSS search page all global quakes 6.5+ with the date/time range of 1980/01/01 00:00:00 to 2013/01/01 00:00:00.

I then computed the jones probability of a 3 day window hit. Here are my results. How does it compare with you?

Brian

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
reading file...
 3  H:/Geo/earthquakes/Catalogs/ANSS catalog/6.5 and up 1980-20131006.txt
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Start Date: 2444239.50000000
    End Date: 2456293.50000000
   Time Span:  12055 days
total quakes:  1261
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
computing Jones probability...
loop time:   0.047
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Window Size:  3 days
      No. Windows:  4018.3333333333
      Window Hits:  959
Jones Probability:  .23865615927001
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------