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Re: Just a durn minute, Don ...
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Posted by Lowell on August 22, 2001 at 21:16:03:
Jest so Don doesn't have all the fun, I'll try to answer this one (at least a little bit). Far-field earthquake triggering theories are "as old as the hills" as they say. It seems one of those innate suspicions that humans have that if the ground is shaking enough that instruments can feel it, then couldn't this result in some kind of response (like an earthquake) wherever that motion occurs (which in the case of large earthquakes is the whole world). Back in the middle ages of seismic theory I recall the occasional discussion of possible links between earthquakes. In 1886 after the great Greek earthquake was followed within a few hours by a series of shocks in the Charleston S.C. area and several days later by the large earthquake in Charleston, the local papers were filled with speculation regarding a link between the two events. Modern reinvigoration of the idea came from the observations that earthquakes throughout the western U.S. were clearly triggered by the Landers, CA. earthquake (Mw 7.6) of 28 June, 1992. This brought about a Science article co-authored by a list of seismologists which nearly filled the first page (Hill was the first) promoting the idea that these events were "triggered" by the Lander's earthquake. There was a lot of discussion about this for about two years in the Journals, until it was no longer considered a relavent topic. But, it did break the barrier so that the USGS knee-jerk reaction to any question "Was there a relation between earthquake X and earthquake Y" ...... "No way" became obvious for what it was an unthinking response based on a lack of research and adherence to paradigms which for good or bad, had permeated seismological thinking for generations. About 8 years ago two notable seismologists Clarence Allen (California Institute of Technology) and Frank Press suggested it might be possible to "predict" earthquakes using far-field information. This paper which was published by the National Academy of Sciences is a classic reference now. Since then many others have looked for relationships between earthquakes and ways to use this information to help determine the location and magnitude of the next one. In general, there are not really any classical "originators" of this idea because it seems ingrained in the idea of causality, certainly not like Wegener was the originator of the Continental Drift idea anyway. I am aware of many incarnations of using far-field theory to predict earthquakes, including the far-field forecast I regularly post to this board. Exactly how Don chooses his events, I am not sure. I think we need to accept his explanation for now - at least it gives us something to hang our hats on.
Follow Ups:
● Re: Just a durn minute, Don ... - mark 00:10:01 - 8/23/2001 (9015) (2)
● Re: Just a durn minute, Don ... - Don In Hollister 01:21:02 - 8/23/2001 (9017) (1)
● Browning's non-quake - Lowell 07:30:18 - 8/23/2001 (9021) (0)
● Re: Just a durn minute, Don ... - Lowell 01:16:54 - 8/23/2001 (9016) (0)
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