Hi Mark. First a little background about the New Madrid fault. According to an article by Barbara Bowers, "a U.S. Geological Survey report that the probability for an earthquake of a magnitude 6 or greater is high: 50% by 2000 and 90% by 2040 (1)." The potential for devastating damages from this quake is that several states would also be affected by a far-reaching ripple effect. The seismic zone lies within the central Mississippi Valley, extending from northeast Arkansas, through southeast Missouri, western Tennessee and western Kentucky to southern Illinois. The latest damaging earthquake in this area occurred in 1895, when an estimated magnitude 6.8 rocked the area.

According to a December, 1989 report by Ann Marie Major, a proclaimed volcanolgist, Iben Browning, issued his prediction that "a 6.5 to 7.5 earthquake will occur in the New Madrid region on December 2 or 3, 1990, plus or minus 2 days". This prediction was highly publicized in the news and print media. Even though Browning had no formal training in seismology or climatology, he was often referred to as a "climatologist" by the press. The apparent credibility of his prediction was largely based on three factors. One, a director of the Center for Earthquake Studies at Southeast Missouri State University supported Browning’s prediction. Two, Browning accurately predicted an October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. And finally, a 4.6 earthquake hit on September 26, 1990 in the area. As Major points out, "Browning’s 1990 New Madrid prediction provided the unusual opportunity to examine public response to a well publicized "prediction" prior to the anticipated disaster". As Major’s report continues to state the results of the study, "Approximately 60.2% of the 629 respondents reported that the earthquake prediction was "somewhat" or "very" believable".

The answer to the question of whether this prediction came true is a thankful no -- an earthquake did not occur anytime in December, 1990 as Browning predicted. But, valuable information was obtained from the study that was conducted. It was no surprise that the news media played a major role in influencing public opinion. However, the study discovered that in the future, the media should be used to broadcast preparedness information to the community in helping people prepare for potential disasters. I’m not so sure that I would want the media to broadcast anything about an impending an earthquake as they have a habit of sensationalism things. Take Care…Don in creepy town