FAR-FIELD AFTERSHOCK FORECAST FOLLOWING NEW ZEALAND MW 7.0 AUGUST 21, 2001

Note: This event occurred about an hour after the post I made concerning the
global quiet which was posted at 05:49 UT (22:49 PDT). The source of this
forecast wishes to remain anonymous at this time. - Lowell

Following is the far-field forecast for the Mw 7.0 earthquake
of August 21 off the NE Coast of North Island, New Zealand.
The earthquake parameters are variously being given as:

O: 21Aug2001 06:52:06 37.0S 179.8W MW=6.9 NEIS EAST OF NORTH ISLAND, N.Z
O: 21Aug2001 06:51 36.5S 178.0W ML=7.0 IGNS OFF NE COAST NORTH ISL, N.Z.
O: 21Aug2001 06:52:07 36.6S 179.9W MS=7.0 GSR EAST OF NORTH ISLAND, N.Z.
O: 21AUG2001 06:52:07 36.7S 179.9W Ms=7.0 CSEM E. OF NORTH IS. NEW ZEALAND

Because of the consistency in the teleseismic locations, they are
accepted as the likely location of this event in this case. Teleseismic
observations also are less biased for large events than local network
observations.

This is the largest event in this general region since a Mw 7.5
on 5 Feb. 1995 and the second largest event ever recorded within
200 km of this epicenter. Other events of Mw>6.7 have occurred on:
Oct 6, 1914 (Mw 6.5), Sep. 22, 1930 (Mw 6.5); Sept 21, 1931 (Mw 6.8);
Feb 13, 1938 (Mw 6.5); Apr 23, 1951 (Mw 6.7); Feb 5, 1995 (Mw 7.5);
and Feb 10, 1995 (Mw 6.5).

From the far-field forecast from the PAR event of 6 August 2001,
post here, we read:

"areas (subject to strong triggering) include.... the Alpine fault in
New Zealand. These areas should be on seismic watch for the next 10 days.
Earthquakes of Ms>6.0 are possible in these areas. THE AREA SOUTH
OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS IS ALSO SUBJECT TO STRONG
FAR-FIELD TRIGGERING." Far-field aftershock forcast from PAR posted 6 Aug, 2001

THE FAR-FIELD FORECAST

Seismicity is expected to increase in areas where seismic energy
from the great shocks is concentrated due to internal reflections
and refractions of waves off internal boundaries. Following are the
locations and distances where this is expected to occur. Because
of the large magntitude of these events, far-field triggering is
expected to continue for at least 10 days - i.e. the forecast and
seismic alert for these areas is in effect through 01 September. 2001

Seismicity is expected to increase in the following areas. Maximum
likely magnitude for these areas is increased 1.0 unit over previous
estimates.
0-5 degrees: Classical and locally triggered aftershocks. Earthquakes in this
region are commonly followed by numerous aftershocks within 5 degrees.
It is likely that several of these will be Mw>5.5 and at least
one of MW>=6.0
9-10 degrees: Greymouth, Christchurch, N.Z., southern Tonga Islands (27-28S)
northern Kermadec Islands (28-29S)
17-19 degrees: Tonga Islands (around 20S0, Auckland Island N.Z.
34-36 degrees: New Britain, southern Macquarie Isl. region
43-45 degrees: Papua New Guinea, Bismarck Sea, Pacific-Antarctic Ridge
110-120W)
59-61 degrees: Halmahera, Flores, Guam, Hawaii
71-73 degrees: Luzon, SE of Honshu, Ryukyu Isl, Taiwan, Southern Chile,
South of Sumatera
103-106 degrees***: Central Colombia*, Panama, Yucatan, Yellowstone,
Alaska-Yukon border, central Plains U.S., Nepal, Sinkiang, Rep.
of So. Africa (it may be of some interest that Hurricane Chantal
was making landfall over the Yucatan at 103 degrees distance
at the time of the N.Z. quake).
142-146 degrees: Jan Mayen Isl, No.of Iceland, Eastern Turkey,
North Atlantic Ridge (around 30N).
176-180 degrees: West of Gibraltar, Spain, So. France (37N 0E).

***: The strongest triggering is always expected to be along the
shadow zone boundary between 103-107 degrees from the epicenter.

OBSERVED EVENTS FOLLOWING PREVIOUS LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN AREA SOUTH
OF KERMADEC ISLANDS:

Oct 6, 1914 Mw 6.5

Sinkiang 35N 78E Ms 6.5 10-09
Illinois 43N 89W Ml 3.8 10-07
Aegean Sea 38N 30W Ms 4.8 10-08
Andaman Isl. 12N 94E Ms 7.2 10-11
Greece 38N 23E Ms 6.0 10-17
Honshu Japan 35N 136E Ms 6.0 10-17
Halmahera 6N 132E Mw 7.9 10-23

Sep 22, 1930 Mw 6.5

Myanmar 25N 95E ML 6.3 9-22
Hindu Kush 38N 70E ML 5.8 9-22
Coast No. Calif 41N 124W ML 5.6 9-22
Greece 37N 22E Mw 4.8 9-23
Argentina 26S 65W Mw 6.5 9-23
Myanmar 25N 98E Ms 6.0 9-25
No. Honshu 30N 130E Ms 5.5 9-29
Kuril Isl. 43N 145E Ms 5.5 9-29
Ohio/Indiana 40N 84W Ml 3.4 9-29
Papua N.G 4S 146E Ms 6.8 9-30

Sep 21, 1931 Mw 6.5

Ohio/Indiana 40N 84W Ms 5.7 9-20
Greece 38N 21E Ms 5.0 9-23
Quebec, CAN 47N 76W Ms 4.6 9-23
So. of Sumatera 5S 102E Mw 7.4 9-25
So. of Australa 57S 144E Ms 5.6 9-25
Chiapas, MXA 15N 91W Ms 6.3 9-26
Halmahera 2N 127E Ms 6.0 9-29
Pakistan 29N 69E Ms 5.6 9-30
Baja California 30N 115W Ms 6.0 10-01
Solomon Isl. 10S 161E Mw 8.1 10-03

Feb 13, 1938 Mw 6.5

Caucasus region 41N 54E Ms 6.0 2-14
Ecuador 2S 82W Ms 5.2 2-14
No. Atlantic 19N 26W Ms 6.3 2-15
So. California 34N 116W Ml 4.5 2-15
Hawaii 20S 155W Ms 5.0 2-17
So. California 34N 121W Ml 3.5 2-20
Mongolia 50N 93E Ms 5.4 2-22
Quebec, CAN 46N 75W Ms 3.2 2-26

Apr 23, 1951 Ms 6.7

Argentina 21S 67W Ms 6.4 04-23
So. of Honshu 30N 130E Ms 5.5 04-26
Kamchatka 53N 158E Ms 5.6 04-27
Central Calif. 37N 121E Ms 3.8 04-27
Aegean Sea 38N 26E Ml 4.5 04-29
New Britain 8S 154E Ms 6.4 04-30
So. of Australa 50S 149E Ms 7.0 05-01
Kuril Islands 44S 142E Ms 6.5 05-04
Parkfield CA 36N 120W Ms 3.4 05-04

El Salvador 13N 87W Ms 6.5 05-06

Feb 05,10, 1995 Mw 7.5, 6.5

Hokkaido 41N 142E Ms 5.8 02-05
No. Calif. 41N 123E Ms 4.2 02-08
Washington sta 45N 122W Ms 3.4 02-08
Colombia 4N 77W Ms 6.3 02-08
Guam 12N 142E Ms 4.8 02-08
Iowa 40N 94W Ml 3.1 02-11
Caribbean Sea 12N 81W Ms 5.3 02-11
No. Peru 5S 76W Ms 5.6 02-12
So. Alaska 59N 153W Ms 5.5 02-12
Halmahera 2N 127E Ms 6.2 02-13 (also 6.0, 6.7)
Argentina 23S 67W Ms 5.7 02-14
Kuril Isl. 44N 148E Ms 5.9 02-14
Ontario, CAN 46N 75W Ms 3.5 02-15
Maine 44N 70W Ms 2.7 02-17
So. Alaska 62N 148W Ms 5.0 02-17
Mindanao 5N 126E Ms 6.1 02-19
Off N Coast CAL 40N 126W Ms 6.8 02-19
Ohio 39N 84W Ms 3.6 02-19
So. California 34N 119W Ms 4.6 02-19

In general, areas which appear to consistently have moderate to
strong earthquakes in the 10 days following Ms 7+ earthquakes in
this area of the Kermadecs/N.Z are:
Halmahera 2-5N 126-129E
Argentina/Chile border 22-26S 65-68W
Hokkaido/Kuril Islands 40-45N 142-148E

Areas which have had several occurrences of unusual earthquakes
following such events include:
Ohio/Mid West U.S.A. (usually around 40N 84-95W)
Off Coast of No. California (including a Ms 6.8)
Greece
Papua New Guinea/New Britain
Ontario/Quebec Canada (around 46N 76W)
The ridge south of Australia (around 50S 140-150E)
The region south of Honshu (around 30N 130-140E)
Central Asia/Myanmar.

Other areas which should be watched
Baja California 30-32N 114-116W
Hawaii