Hi Chris,

It is probably nearly physically impossible for someone to generate a forecast as accurate at that Total Electron Content forecast was by accident or by chance. The forecast was so improbable that I would think that there had to have been a link between the measurements and the approaching earthquake.

Unfortunately, there are no good mechanisms available that I am aware of for researchers to easily and rapidly circulate information regarding the successes or failures they are having with getting their forecasting methods to work. So, if I had not widely circulated information regarding that forecast then it is likely that no one anywhere would have known about it. And I am planning to take additional steps to circulate more information.

It is particularly important that earthquake forecasting researchers in the U.S., Japan, and the People’s Republic of China be aware that such an earthquake prediction was made. They are probably in about the best position to determine if Total Electron Content measurements could work for a significant number of approaching earthquakes. And considering that Japan reportedly suffered more than 200 billion dollars worth of economic loss and damage as a result of that catastrophic March 11, 2011 earthquake they would certainly have a financial incentive to spend a relatively small amount of research money on efforts to determine it a Total Electron Content based forecasting method might work.