Shan’s Forecasts – September 1, 2012

In another note(s) posted long ago I stated that there are some data that I believe support Shan’s earthquake forecasting method that relies on fluctuations in sun shadow traces during the day. Pavel’s ground tilt data are the support data that that I was referring to.

If Pavel can detect some type of subsurface ground tilt for an earthquake like that one in Chile that is going to occur a half a world away then I expect that Shan might be able to detect some surface deflections in the ground orientation for earthquakes within his range. With a single sensor he works with earthquakes that are probably within a few thousand miles of India where he is located.

In any case, what I have said all along is that individual earthquake forecasters need to demonstrate that their own methods are working etc. I have been helping Pavel with making some data available online. But communications are slow. And I don’t have access to the data that his lab collects from sensor systems they have in different areas. So, people have to do with what there is available at my Web site. Or, buy the book!