Chris,

You are probably totally misinterpreting much of what I have been saying.

One of the main things that I have said is that at this present time, each earthquake forecaster is responsible for letting other people know if his or her procedure works and how it can be used. That goes for Shan, Amit Dave, Pavel, me, and anyone else circulating forecasts.

Since the beginning of the year I have been spending most of my own time on updating my own forecasting method. And it now runs reasonably well without requiring too much of my time. Additional updates will improve that even more. However, the actual methodology has not been improved, just the computer software and hardware that lets the program run. It is now much more automated.

As far as my forecasts go, a while back I sent information to both Canie and Roger stating that my data were indicating that a powerful earthquake could be about to occur in the Japan area. And one showed up right on schedule. Both of them confirmed in notes posted here receiving that warning.

In the past few weeks I posted two earthquake warnings to this bulletin board. One appears to have matched the powerful earthquake that occurred of the West Coast of South America several days later. I am still checking to see if the other warning matched the recent powerful earthquake in the Philippines area. I said it looked like it might be a Northwest Pacific Ocean area earthquake. But, that could also include the Philippines area as my forecasting method works only with longitudes and not latitudes.

I don’t have time to review Pavel’s methodology in detail. But his data look reasonable to me. And with the limited amount of time that I have had to spend on comparing them with my own data they appear to agree.

My recommendation to him is that if he believes that his forecasting method is working then it would probably work better if all of his data were being fed into a computer program that could compare them with one another. There should be trends in ground movement data that a computer program could evaluate a lot faster and more accurately than a group of people could. I have not heard about any interest on his part in doing that.

Also, something that I have been saying to all forecasters around the world is that we need to have an international type of computer program that could link data from everyone on the planet together. So, Pavel’s ground movement sensor data would be compared with GPS satellite information and various electromagnetic and gravitational methods etc. That would undoubtedly be the best way to forecast earthquakes.

Unfortunately, governments around the world don’t appear to have any interest in such a project at this time even thought it might save the populations of entire cities from being wiped out.

Pavel would probably get more mileage out of his research if he were to start storing information on my Web page himself. He could take all of the questions posted here and ask them in a generic form on my Web page and then also answer them there and here. Notes posted to the EarthWaves board by themselves might get attention for a few days. Then they move down the list and disappear from anyone’s interest. Information stored on a Web page can be a lot more permanent and better organized.

But, once again, that is up to him. I have my own forecasting program to concentrate on.