Pavel;

You said you used my probability method for mag 7+ quakes so I decided to check you.

You used mag 7+ quakes from 140-210, 30-90. I took this to mean 30N to 90N, 140E to 150W. Please correct me if that's wrong.

There are only 63 mag 7+ quakes in the NEIC catalog from 1973-2011 in that area. A 48 day window had 51 hits in 297 windows giving odds of about 17% for a hit.

The question then becomes how many such hits do you have out of how many predictions? If it's only one, it's meaningless.

I'd say it's a small sample size problem and I'm amazed you wrote a book on such flimsy results.

Roger