With Don's observation of far-field triggering there have been
a number of posts in the last several days in this regard. It
seems an appropriate time to revisit the far-field forecast which
was posted on this board on June 3, 2001 immediately following
the Mw 7.3 Kermadec Island earthquake.
The predictors are using far-field triggering at cusp locations
and observed earthquake occurrence to make this forecast, so it
seems useful to see if these phenomena were successful in describing
seismicity during the stated time frame in the forecast (10 days
following the Kermadec event).
The forecast (Post #7849, at the bottom of the list of posts)
stated (at the end - this was the summary):

"In general, areas which appear to consistently have moderate to
strong earthquakes in the 10 days following Ms 7+ earthquakes in
this area of the Kermadecs are:
Fiji/Tonga about 20 S.
Honshu - off East Coast between 32 and 37N
Central/No Atlantic Ridge
Guatemala/Mexico
Santa Cruz Isl. 11S 165E
Kuril Islands
New Britain/Solomon Isl.

Areas which have had several occurrences of unusual earthquakes
following such events include:
Texas
Tennessee
Central and No. California and off Coast of California
Romania
Greece
So. Sandwich Islands
Lake Tanganyika
Loyalty Islands"

So what can we say about this.
First statistically:
There were 72 recorded events of MB>4.5 in the world during the 10-day period
3 June to 13 June, 2001. Of these 46 (64%) fell in the 7 primary
locations listed, 5 fell (7%) fell in the secondary listed areas.
71% of seismicity with Mb>4.5 occurred in a region expected to
see increased activity (including an aftershock in the Kermadec Is.)
while the other 21 events (29%) fell in other areas of the world.

Specifically The following number of events in each primary region
were:

Fiji/Tonga about 20 S - 7 events within 250 km of 20S (10%)
Honshu - off East Coast between 32 and 37N - 3 events (4%)
Central/No Atlantic Ridge - 6 events (8%)
Guatemala/Mexico - 5 events (7%)
Santa Cruz Isl. 11S 165E - 4 events (including one at 11S 166E) (6%)
Kuril Islands - 5 events (7%)
New Britain/Solomon Isl. - 16 events (22%)

Specifically The following number of events in each secondary region
were:

Texas - 0 events
Tennessee - 0 events. A Ml 2.8 occurred in the New Madrid region
this morning. This was the largest event in this region during
the year 2001. During the past 10 days 5 events have occurred
in the New Madrid region, the highest activity in this area
since early May. A Ml 3.9 earthquake also occurred in Ohio
shortly after the Kermadec event.

Central and No. California and off Coast of California: No
earthquakes of Ml>4.5 occurred in this area, however a Ml
5.0 did occur in SW Washington state.

Romania - 0 events
Greece - 3 events. Two of these (Ml 4.8 and 5.3) were the largest
events in the region since early 2000.

So. Sandwich Islands - 2 events

Lake Tanganyika - 0 events

Loyalty Islands - 1 event (included above with Santa Cruz events)"

If any of you can determine a useful way to test this forecast
statistically (Roger, Michael?) I would love to see how you do it.
In a subjective sense, the stated purpose of the forecast was
to identify the areas most likely to see moderate or large earthquakes
(Mb>4.5) during the 10 days following the Kermadec earthquake. The
forecast identified the 7 regions where nearly two-thirds of such
earthquakes occurred in the world as primary locations of far-field
aftershock activity. To me, this seems like a good start.

Following are the Specific earthquakes with Mb>4.5 during this time
period according to region.

03Jun2001 02:41:58.1 29.5S 178.6W184 MW=7.0 M NEI KERMADEC ISL, NEW ZEALAND
07Jun2001 05:06:29.3 33.6S 179.4E 33 MB=5.1 M NEI SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

OFF HONSHU:

03Jun2001 05:11:56.2 30.0N 138.9E391 MB=4.8 M NEI SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
09Jun2001 02:20:50.1 33.4N 136.0E406 MB=4.7 M NEI NEAR S. COAST OF W HONSHU
11Jun2001 04:22:30.1 35.9N 142.4E 33 MB=4.8 M NEI OFF E COAST HONSHU, JAPAN

KURIL ISLANDS:

03Jun2001 08:20:26.6 43.5N 148.0E 33 MB=4.7 M NEI KURIL ISLANDS
04Jun2001 12:11:58.6 49.4N 155.5E 63 MB=4.6 M NEI KURIL ISLANDS
05Jun2001 01:45:34.1 45.4N 149.6E 55 MB=4.9 M NEI KURIL ISLANDS
13Jun2001 02:15:34.2 45.5N 150.4E130 mb=4.9 M GSR KURIL ISLANDS
12Jun2001 22:41:28.2 44.3N 148.7E 33 MS=5.4 M*GSR KURIL ISLANDS

TONGA/FIJI:

03Jun2001 20:23:48.2 20.5S 178.7W444 MB=4.1 M NEI FIJI ISLANDS REGION
03Jun2001 21:18:17.4 24.6S 179.9W481 MS=4.6 M NEI SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
03Jun2001 22:20:16.4 25.1S 177.1W127 MB=4.9 M NEI SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
06Jun2001 20:17:32.2 21.1S 177.4W 33 MB=4.6 M NEI FIJI ISLANDS REGION
06Jun2001 06:55:37.7 20.1S 174.0W 33 MB=4.6 M NEI TONGA ISLANDS
06Jun2001 17:17:07.2 20.0S 175.9W 33 MB=4.5 M NEI TONGA ISLANDS
07Jun2001 07:24:43.2 20.3S 177.5W500 MS=4.6 M NEI FIJI ISLANDS REGION
07Jun2001 19:04:25.1 20.6S 179.4W500 MB=4.3 M NEI FIJI ISLANDS REGION
11Jun2001 06:03:51.3 18.8S 174.9W 33 MB=4.8 M NEI TONGA ISLANDS
12Jun2001 22:26:00.5 18.4S 177.9W200 mb=5.3 M*GSR FIJI ISLANDS REGION

MEXICO/GUATEMALA AREA

04Jun2001 02:40:30.0 14.8N 92.2W 33 MB=4.8 M NEI NEAR COAST CHIAPAS, MEXICO
06Jun2001 19:27:42.7 12.1N 88.0W 33 MB=4.6 M NEI OFF COAST OF CEN AMERICA
09JUN2001 18:19:29 16.2N 91.4W 5 ML=5.3 M SIS GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER
08JUN2001 08:15:28 8.5N 83.0W 15 ML=4.9 M SIS COSTA RICA
13JUN200 12:25:50.9 14.5N 85.9W 35 MC=4.9 M CAS HONDURAS

NEW BRITAIN/SOLOMON IS/ PNG

05Jun2001 09:00:04.8 6.9S 146.6E 10 MS=6.2 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 09:22:32.1 6.8S 146.6E 10 MB=5.2 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 09:49:20.6 6.9S 146.5E 10 MB=4.7 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 09:49:31.0 6.8S 146.6E 10 MB=5.3 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 10:00:09.8 6.8S 146.5E 10 MB=5.0 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 12:34:54.2 6.9S 146.6E 10 MB=4.8 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 13:12:00.9 6.8S 146.6E 10 MB=4.9 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 13:38:01.9 6.8S 146.6E 10 MB=4.8 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 15:13:59.0 6.8S 146.4E 15 MB=5.8 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 22:01:31.2 6.9S 146.8E 33 MB=4.7 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
05Jun2001 22:52:06.4 6.8S 146.4E 33 MB=4.9 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
06Jun2001 21:39:29.9 6.9S 146.9E 33 MB=4.7 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
09Jun2001 08:22:39.4 5.1S 152.8E 10 MS=5.4 M NEI NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
06Jun2001 18:04:17.2 7.0S 155.1E 10 MB=4.7 M NEI SOLOMON ISLANDS
10Jun2001 11:25:38.3 6.5S 154.8E 80 MB=5.3 M NEI SOLOMON ISLANDS
13Jun2001 17:10:46.3 4.5S 153.0E 55 MB=4.8 M NEI NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

NORTH/CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE

07Jun2001 09:16:19.7 0.9N 27.8W 10 MB=5.0 M NEI CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
10Jun2001 01:36:51.9 7.4N 35.5W 10 MB=4.7 M NEI CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
12Jun2001 14:14:40.1 14.6N 45.0W 10 MB=4.8 M NEI N MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
12Jun2001 14:18:43.0 14.5N 45.0W 10 MB=4.8 M NEI N MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
12Jun2001 14:22:15.9 14.6N 45.0W 10 MB=5.1 M NEI N MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
12Jun2001 14:25:35.7 14.6N 45.2W 10 MB=4.8 M NEI N MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

SANTA CRUZ/VANUATU/LOYALTY ISLANDS

11Jun2001 19:20:11.0 11.6S 166.4E 33 MB=4.6 M NEI SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
05Jun2001 16:16:55.5 14.4S 167.4E185 MB=4.6 M NEI VANUATU ISLANDS
09Jun2001 03:15:04.6 15.1S 167.3E182 MB=4.7 M NEI VANUATU ISLANDS
11Jun2001 05:04:43.4 17.4S 168.9E 33 MB=4.8 M NEI VANUATU ISLANDS
11Jun2001 21:33:34.7 14.4S 167.5E 33 MB=4.2 M NEI VANUATU ISLANDS

COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

07Jun2001 23:38:13.0 40.7N 124.6W 13 ML=3.6 M NEI NEAR COAST OF N CALIF.

GREECE

06Jun2001 14:00:40.5 36.1N 22.3E 10 MB=4.7 M NEI SOUTHERN GREECE
09Jun2001 01:28:31.6 36.7N 22.7E 33 MB=4.5 M NEI SOUTHERN GREECE
10Jun2001 13:11:01.6 38.6N 25.6E 10 MB=5.3 M NEI AEGEAN SEA

SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS

08Jun2001 15:08:41.6 57.8S 25.4W 33 MB=4.8 M NEI SOUTH SANDWICH ISL REGION
11Jun2001 22:11:05.9 58.8S 25.7W 33 MB=4.5 M NEI SOUTH SANDWICH ISL REGION

TENNESSEE AND VICINITY

13Jun2001 07:26:24.0 36.6N 89.6W 9 LG=2.8 M NEI NEW MADRID, MISSOURI REG
03Jun2001 22:36:45.9 42.0N 80.8W 5 LG=3.0 M NEI OHIO
08JUN2001 16:41:33 36.3N 89.5W 5 ML=1.2 M CER N of Ridgely TN
08JUN2001 15:07:32 36.2N 89.5W 10 ML=1.3 M CER SSE of Ridgely TN
05JUN2001 06:02:53 35.9N 89.9W 8 ML=0.8 M CER SW of Blytheville AR
04JUN2001 10:17:11 36.1N 89.4W 10 ML=1.2 M CER NNW of Dyersburg TN

OTHER (NON-FORECAST) AREAS:

07Jun2001 18:03:31.8 24.8N 99.2E 33 MB=4.8 M NEI YUNNAN, CHINA
08Jun2001 15:07:04.5 11.0N 92.4E 33 MB=4.9 M NEI ANDAMAN ISL, INDIA REGION
09Jun2001 09:13:02.2 24.4N 141.8E 33 MB=4.6 M NEI VOLCANO ISL, JAPAN REGION
10Jun2001 11:31:49.2 3.8N 127.1E 33 MB=5.0 M NEI TALAUD ISLANDS, INDONESIA
10Jun2001 15:18:31.9 4.1N 126.3E 80 MB=5.4 M NEI TALAUD ISLANDS, INDONESIA
11Jun2001 12:18:49.9 3.8N 127.2E 33 MB=5.0 M NEI TALAUD ISLANDS, INDONESIA
03Jun2001 23:48:19.9 0.5N 122.7E 98 MB=5.0 M NEI MINAHASSA PEN, SULAWESI
11Jun2001 11:43:54.1 0.0S 123.3E 33 MB=4.9 M NEI MINAHASSA PEN, SULAWESI
04Jun2001 02:58:43.7 6.9S 124.9E558 MB=5.3 M NEI BANDA SEA
04Jun2001 08:04:02.6 6.0S 105.2E 33 MB=4.7 M NEI SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA
04Jun2001 13:00:57.2 1.5N 127.2E119 MB=5.2 M NEI HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
10Jun2001 13:19:11.0 47.2N 123.5W 41 ML=5.0 M NEI WASHINGTON
13Jun2001 13:17:56.1 24.5N 122.4E 85 MB=5.7 M NEI TAIWAN REGION
13Jun2001 04:10:47.0 27.0S 66.3W 17 MB=5.3 M NEI CATAMARCA PROV, ARGENTINA
04Jun2001 18:42:34.9 64.7N 152.3W 10 MB=5.1 M NEI CENTRAL ALASKA
04Jun2001 22:41:02.2 17.1N 146.0E 82 MW=5.8 M NEI MARIANA ISLANDS
05Jun2001 20:04:45.2 29.1N 128.8E169 MB=4.7 M NEI NW OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
07Jun2001 07:03:12.9 51.3N 179.0W 33 MB=4.9 M NEI ANDREANOF ISL, ALEUTIAN
05Jun2001 15:33:27.1 42.5N 48.7E 33 MB=5.3 M NEI CASPIAN SEA
10Jun2001 01:52:08.0 39.8N 53.9E 34 MW=5.4 M NEI TURKMENISTAN
12Jun2001 01:46:49.8 39.2N 47.2E 33 MB=4.7 M NEI ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN-IRAN