Posted by Lowell on June 08, 2001 at 18:56:16:
In a post from June 3, 2001, it was suggested that the following areas ought to show increased seismic activity following the Mw 7.2 in the Kermadec Islands on June 3. We are now half-way through this period of expected activity and an update on what has occurred might be interesting at this time. To summarize, NEIC has listed 48 events in the world of Mb>=4.5 since the Kermadec Isl. earthquake. 36 (75%) of these have occurred in the areas listed a primary or secondary areas of increased seismicity. Of these, 32 (67%) have occurred in areas which were considered primary locations of enhanced seismicity. Each primary area experienced at least one earthquake of Ml>=4.5 in the 5 days since the Kermadec event. 4 of 8 secondary localities have experienced a regionally significant earthquake in this time period. Was this a successful forecast? With 67% of global activity occurring in the 6 stated primary regions over the past 5 days, and at least one event in each locale, the forecast seems to have met it's stated goal to identify areas where seismicity should be strong during this period. The post stated: "In general, areas which appear to consistently have moderate to strong earthquakes in the 10 days following Ms 7+ earthquakes in this area of the Kermadecs are: Fiji/Tonga about 20 S. Honshu - off East Coast between 32 and 37N Central/No Atlantic Ridge Guatemala/Mexico Santa Cruz Isl. 11S 165E Kuril Islands New Britain/Solomon Isl" Taking these one at a time shows the events that have occurred: Aftershock in Kermadec Islands: 07Jun2001 05:06:29.3 33.6S 179.4E 33 MB=5.1 M NEI SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS 1. Fiji/Tonga about 20 S. 07Jun2001 19:04:25.1 20.6S 179.4W500 MS=4.6 M NEI FIJI ISLANDS REGION 07Jun2001 07:24:43.2 20.3S 177.5W500 MB=4.6 M NEI FIJI ISLANDS REGION 06Jun2001 20:17:32.2 21.1S 177.4W 33 MB=4.6 M NEI FIJI ISLANDS REGION 06Jun2001 17:17:07.2 20.0S 175.9W 33 MB=4.5 M NEI TONGA ISLANDS 06Jun2001 06:55:37.7 20.1S 174.0W 33 MB=4.6 M NEI TONGA ISLANDS 03Jun2001 22:20:16.4 25.1S 177.1W127 MB=4.9 M NEI SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS 03Jun2001 21:18:17.4 24.6S 179.9W481 MB=4.5 M NEI SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS 2. Honshu - off East Coast between 32 and 37N 06Jun2001 11:50:50.5 33.9N 137.3E300 Mj=4.5 M NIEDNR S. COAST HONSHU, JAPAN 08JUN2001 05:24 36.8N 141.4E 33 Mj=4.3 M NIEDE_OFF_IBARAKI_PREF, HONSHU 03JUN2001 02:33 35.0N 138.1E 40 Mj=4.3 M NIEDCENTRAL_SHIZUOKA_PREF, HONSHU 3. Central/No Atlantic Ridge 07Jun2001 09:16:19.7 0.9N 27.8W 10 MB=5.0 M NEI CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE 4. Guatemala/Mexico 06Jun2001 19:27:42.7 12.1N 88.0W 33 MB=4.6 M NEI OFF COAST OF CEN AMERICA 04Jun2001 02:40:30.0 14.8N 92.2W 33 MB=4.5 M NEI NEAR COAST CHIAPAS, MEXICO 5. Santa Cruz Isl. 11S 165E 05Jun2001 21:46:55.1 15.4S 167.8E 33 MB=4.8 M NEI VANUATU ISLANDS 05Jun2001 16:16:55.5 14.4S 167.4E185 MB=4.6 M NEI VANUATU ISLANDS 6. Kuril Islands 05Jun2001 12:56:09.6 43.6N 147.3E 33 MB=4.5 M NEI KURIL ISLANDS 05Jun2001 01:45:34.1 45.4N 149.6E 55 MB=4.9 M NEI KURIL ISLANDS 04Jun2001 12:11:58.6 49.4N 155.5E 63 MB=4.6 M NEI KURIL ISLANDS 03Jun2001 08:20:26.6 43.5N 148.0E 33 MB=4.7 M NEI KURIL ISLANDS 7. New Britain P.N.G/Solomon Isl. 06Jun2001 21:39:29.9 6.9S 146.9E 33 MB=4.7 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. 06Jun2001 18:04:17.2 7.0S 155.1E 10 MB=4.7 M NEI SOLOMON ISLANDS 05Jun2001 22:52:06.4 6.8S 146.4E 33 MB=4.9 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. 05Jun2001 22:01:31.2 6.9S 146.8E 33 MB=4.7 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. 05Jun2001 15:13:59.0 6.8S 146.4E 15 MB=5.8 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. 05Jun2001 13:38:01.9 6.8S 146.6E 10 MB=4.8 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. 05Jun2001 13:12:00.9 6.8S 146.6E 10 MB=4.9 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. 05Jun2001 12:34:54.2 6.9S 146.6E 10 MB=4.8 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. 05Jun2001 10:00:09.8 6.8S 146.5E 10 MB=5.0 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. 05Jun2001 09:49:31.0 6.8S 146.6E 10 MB=5.3 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. 05Jun2001 09:49:20.6 6.9S 146.5E 10 MB=4.7 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. 05Jun2001 09:22:32.1 6.8S 146.6E 10 MB=5.2 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. 05Jun2001 09:00:04.8 6.9S 146.6E 10 MS=6.2 M NEI E NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. "Areas which have had several occurrences of unusual earthquakes following such events include: Texas Tennessee Central and No. California and off Coast of California Romania Greece So. Sandwich Islands Lake Tanganyika Loyalty Islands"
2. Tennessee: 03Jun2001 22:36:45.9 42.0N 80.8W 5 LG=3.0 M NEI OHIO Largest earthquake in NE US since January, 2001. 3. Off Coast California 07Jun2001 23:38:13.0 40.7N 124.6W 13 ML=3.6 M NEI NEAR COAST OF N CALIF. Largest earthquake western U.S. since May 26, 2001. 5. Greece 06Jun2001 14:00:40.5 36.1N 22.3E 10 MB=4.7 M NEI SOUTHERN GREECE Largest earthquake in southern Greece since May, 2000 6. So. Sandwich Islands 08Jun2001 15:08:41.6 57.8S 25.4W 33 MB=4.8 M NEI SOUTH SANDWICH ISL REGION NEIC Events outside listed areas (Mb>=4.5) 08Jun2001 15:07:04.5 11.0N 92.4E 33 MB=4.9 M NEI ANDAMAN ISL, INDIA REGION 07Jun2001 18:03:31.8 24.8N 99.2E 33 MB=4.8 M NEI YUNNAN, CHINA 07Jun2001 07:35:07.2 51.2N 178.9W 33 MB=4.5 M NEI ANDREANOF ISL, ALEUTIAN 07Jun2001 07:03:12.9 51.3N 179.0W 33 MB=4.9 M NEI ANDREANOF ISL, ALEUTIAN 05Jun2001 20:04:45.2 29.1N 128.8E169 MB=4.7 M NEI NW OF RYUKYU ISLANDS 05Jun2001 15:33:27.1 42.5N 48.7E 33 MB=5.3 M NEI CASPIAN SEA 04Jun2001 22:41:02.2 17.1N 146.0E 82 MW=5.8 M NEI MARIANA ISLANDS 04Jun2001 11:56:28.9 31.2N 98.7E 33 MB=4.5 M NEI XIZANG 04Jun2001 13:00:57.2 1.5N 127.2E119 MB=5.2 M NEI HALMAHERA, INDONESIA 04Jun2001 08:04:02.6 6.0S 105.2E 33 MB=4.7 M NEI SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA 04Jun2001 02:58:43.7 6.9S 124.9E558 MB=5.3 M NEI BANDA SEA 03Jun2001 23:48:19.9 0.5N 122.7E 98 MB=5.0 M NEI MINAHASSA PEN, SULAWESI For link to NEIC data see link to World Quakes at top of this page.
Follow Ups:
● Re: Kermadec far-field aftershock forecast - update - Petra Challus 04:31:25 - 6/9/2001 (7894) (1)
● Re: Kermadec far-field aftershock forecast - update - Canie 09:01:20 - 6/9/2001 (7895) (1)
● Re: Kermadec far-field aftershock forecast - update - Petra Challus 22:17:19 - 6/9/2001 (7904) (0)
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