Hi Roger, (or anyone)

The project being discussed here would provide some important information for some earthquake researchers.

Before too long I am planning to start storing updates for my earthquake forecasting program at my Web sites. And there is one research project connected with the use of those programs that I myself don’t presently have time to run. But other researchers using my freeware downloadable computer programs could do the work.

My programs use moderately complex probability equations to compare data associated with EM Signal times with similar data associated with past earthquakes. And this particular project for other researchers would involve comparing my EM Signal data with different groups of past earthquakes to see which group or groups would produce the best results. For several examples:

*** Should earthquakes of all magnitudes be given the same importance or “weight” with those probability equations?

*** What is the best range of magnitudes to use, 5 and up, 4 and up, 3, or 2 etc. etc.?

*** Should people living in California for example use mostly earthquakes that occurred along the U.S. West Coast in their earthquake database file? Or should everyone use a global set of earthquakes?

EASY PROJECT

The following relatively simple project that could help with this is for someone to prepare a chart that shows how many earthquakes there are in the NEIC database going back to the start of 1990 for various magnitudes.

My program can presently only work with earthquakes that occurred since January 1, 1990. However, if necessary, special calculations could be done for earlier earthquakes such as highly destructive ones so that they could be included in the database files.

So, the proposed chart could have a line that shows that there are X number of earthquakes in the database file for 7 and higher magnitude earthquakes, 6 and higher, 5 and higher etc.

It could also have a line showing how many earthquakes there are in the database file for each .1 magnitude unit. So there would be Y1 number of earthquakes at 7.3, Y2 at 7.2, Y3 at 7.1 etc.

If the chart scales for those two lines were dramatically different they could be on separate charts. And, the charts could have a logarithmic or exponential Y axis if necessary as there are many more earthquakes that have a 5 magnitude than an 8 magnitude.

WHY SUCH INFORMAITON IS NEEDED

As I said earlier, my forecasting program is comparing EM Signals with past earthquakes. And there are practical limits regarding how many earthquakes it can work with. The more there are in the database file, the slower the program runs, and the more memory and disk space it needs.

My present earthquake database has more than 60,000 earthquakes in it. And many more could probably be worked with. But some type of decision needs to be made regarding just how many earthquakes should be in that database file. And those charts could help with that decision making process.