Hi Petra:

Not to be a kill joy, I believe earthquakes cannot be predicted yet, or lets put it this way, I don't have any information beyond a reasonable doubt that it is currently possible. It will be someday, just like the weather, but not yet. Based on that, I can't answer your question.

I assume you mean the ability to predict a quake above and beyond random chance, correct? I would guess that a big one would be easier as the precursors I would expect to be bigger...

Michael