In order to determine how well an earthquake forecasting program is working it is important to keep records regarding how well it did with past earthquakes. The present Etdprog.exe Chart A picture files on my Data.html Web page have been in existence for only a short time. However, EM Signal and earthquake records have been saved for past years. Conditions that existed just before the following destructive earthquakes were recreated. And the Etdprog.exe program was instructed to process the data.

2009/09/30 10:16:09 0.72S 99.85E 81 7.6 Indonesia Area
2009/09/29 17:48:11 15.55S 172.09W 18 8.0 Samoa Islands Area
NEIS Data

The following picture chart shows what the Data.html Web page Chart A picture would have looked like had the present program generated a chart on September 29, 2009, just before the Samoa Islands area earthquake occurred.

http://www.Freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/images/2009-09-29.png

The Etdprog.exe earthquake forecasting computer program probability equations consider longitudes that are 90 and 180 longitude degrees to the east or west of one another as being roughly the same. So, lines have been added for all of those longitudes. With each group of two yellow lines the one on the right corresponds to the Indonesia earthquake that occurred at 100 E longitude (100 E = 170 W, 80 W, 10 E, 100 E).

The line on the left corresponds to the Samoa Islands area earthquake that occurred at 172 W longitude (172 W = 172 W, 82W, 8 E, 98 E).

My personal interpretation of the data is that the sharp peaks related to 100 E longitude (and + - 90 and 180 degrees) on the chart show that the approach of the Indonesia area earthquake could probably have been detected. And although there is no sharp peak exactly at 172 W there is one at 8 E.

Because the Samoa Islands area earthquake was more powerful than the one in the Indonesia area, logic would suggest that there should be a larger peak around 172 W. And a strong EM Signal was in fact detected about 12 minutes before the Samoa earthquake. However, it is not yet understood exactly why some approaching earthquakes appear strongly with this forecasting method and not others. It could be related to the fault zone environment and/or to the configuration of the Earth’s geomagnetic energy field during the days and weeks before the earthquake occurs.

It is my opinion that if earthquake forecasters and researchers had been watching for earthquake precursor activity along the 100 E longitude line and perhaps the 172 W longitude line then they might have spotted the approach of one or both of those earthquakes. Combined they reportedly claimed something like 1000 lives. So spending some time and energy checking for earthquake precursors would have been well worth the effort if people living in those areas could have been alerted regarding either earthquake’s approach. And perhaps some of those lives could have been saved.