Re: Earthquake Prediction Registry
Posted by michael on May 18, 2001 at 15:25:57:

Hi Roger:

I look at it as a learning tool, rather than a warning mechanism. I don't believe anybody currently has the ability to make predictions that will raise any public concern, so "warnings" really don't exist yet. If somebody ever got so good at prediction that it caused public concern, and I'm betting somebody will find the holy grail at some point in the not to distant future, I'd end up with a big old liability problem.

In addition, there is in fact nothing keeping a predictor from making their prediction public themselves. A receipt will be emailed to the predictor with their prediction specifics and an EPR prediction number. If they make that public, that's their choice, and their responsibility. The EPR is simply a mechanism for a predictor to archive their predictions with a second impartial party for integrity purposes, and for the public to evaluate a predictors performance history.

I was thinking of putting a check box on the prediction form that says something like "Please evaluate my prediction". Would you be interested in providing that sort of service?

Michael


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Earthquake Prediction Registry - Roger Hunter  17:40:58 - 5/18/2001  (7600)  (1)
        ● Re: Earthquake Prediction Registry - Lowell  17:58:00 - 5/18/2001  (7603)  (2)
           ● Re: Earthquake Prediction Registry - Roger Hunter  05:28:34 - 5/19/2001  (7607)  (1)
              ● Re: Earthquake Prediction Registry - Lowell  20:52:32 - 5/19/2001  (7612)  (2)
                 ● Re: Earthquake Prediction Registry - michael  09:41:55 - 5/20/2001  (7615)  (1)
                    ● Re: Earthquake Prediction Registry - Lowell  11:54:29 - 5/20/2001  (7617)  (1)
                       ● Re: Earthquake Prediction Registry - Roger Hunter  16:31:12 - 5/20/2001  (7619)  (1)
                          ● Re: Earthquake Prediction Registry - Lowell  17:04:05 - 5/20/2001  (7620)  (0)
                 ● Re: Earthquake Prediction Registry - Roger Hunter  05:36:30 - 5/20/2001  (7613)  (0)
           ● Re: Earthquake Prediction Registry - michael  19:42:18 - 5/18/2001  (7604)  (0)