Re: Italy Muzzled Scientist Who Predicted? This should prompt some debate
Posted by PennyB on April 06, 2009 at 14:38:48:

This is an ongoing argument about quake prediction, alas.

Until we have a reliable way to predict quakes within a few days...OR until we have a totally educated populace with quake-proof buildings, this is going to be difficult.

Some folks have predicted that MORE people would die from evacuations, looting, etc. if a quake were predicted too far in advance. Or worse--who is going to be liable if the quake doesn't happen. We hve pretty good tornado prediction in the US, and yet still a lot of people don't heed them.

I wonder if the people of L'Aquila and surroundings would have handled this prediction in a reasonable manner? A month of fear and evacuations?

I have no answers for this. The Chinese prediction in the 70s, and subsequent evacuations saving lives, was useful only because it was a very regulated society at the time.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: What about just publishing an ongoing percentage? - Tony  20:03:28 - 4/6/2009  (75083)  (1)
        ● Re: What about just publishing an ongoing percentage? - PennyB  13:36:11 - 4/7/2009  (75094)  (0)
     ● Lots of MT Solutions - Glen  19:43:04 - 4/6/2009  (75082)  (1)
        ● W MT - John Vidale  21:38:51 - 4/6/2009  (75085)  (2)
           ● Got it, thanx - Glen  20:44:14 - 4/7/2009  (75095)  (0)
           ● more prediction details - John Vidale  23:01:52 - 4/6/2009  (75086)  (1)
              ● Re: more prediction details - Michael Tolchard  12:36:05 - 4/7/2009  (75093)  (0)