It only takes one
Posted by heartland chris on March 31, 2009 at 13:37:58:

Bob Yeats has said that the Oak Ridge fault in the area between the Northridge rupture and Ventura is very ripe: it has much higher slip rate than the S-dipping fault that broke during 1994 Northridge. It has nothing historic, so greater than 200 years. I would imagine he would not expect it to wait another 200 years. This might be more like a 7 than a 7.5, though.

Since you (John) moved NW, engineers have been presenting at SCEC meetings that, if the ground motion simulations are correct, tall steel frame buildings will collapse: for a given earthquake brittle welds will fail over a wider area than ductile welds, but buildings with ductile welds are vulnerable also.

I'm busy writing text on the blind thrust faults beneath Palos Verdes that may root beneath LA (related to Compton thrust of Shaw and Suppe). This is for SCEC annual report due today. True, if their and our interpretations are correct, the slip rate would be low and would be 1000s of years between M7+ quakes on any one part of fault. I'm about to write text related to the very young (last 20,000 years) anticlines that deform the seafloor of San Pedro Basin, SW of Long Beach. The question is whether these are driven by local strike-slip tectonics (restraining segment on San Pedro Basin fault), by somewhat more regional strike-slip tectonics (Restraining segment south of Catalina Island that uplifts that island and its shelves; Legg et al 2007), or if these are the tips of a regional thrust system rooted below L.A., driven by the restraining segment of San Andreas fault proper.
Chris


Follow Ups:
     ● reference? - John Vidale  19:07:09 - 3/31/2009  (75057)  (1)
        ● Re: reference? - heartland chris  07:32:39 - 4/1/2009  (75059)  (0)