You may have a point that a specific section of fault that just slipped is unlikely to slip again soon, however, I'd argue that there are so many faults that the odds of strong shaking only go up after a mainshock. The only evidence I'm aware of for this hypothesis is Allan Rubin's repeating earthquake work that shows a tiny donut pattern of aftershocks around tiny earthquakes.

If unbroken asperities amid or on the edge of the mainshock are considered, or if parallel faults, conjugate faults, or slip-partitioning faults are considered, after a big earthquake I'd guess the hazard has generally gone up, not down.

Your argument is often posed as to why aftershocks should not occur - why should earthquakes occur hours to years later if the dynamic stresses were not enough to set them off? Yet epicentral regions are filled with aftershocks just seconds after the dynamic waves have dissipated.