Hi All. Having lived in Japan for 10 years and the better half being Japanese as well I think I may have a little knowledge as to how the Japanese work and think, although I will admit I’m not always sure as to how they think. The better half always throws me a curve now and then. I guess it’s supposed to keep me on my toes, which by the way it does.

To date not one prediction of an impending major quake, or any other as far as that goes has been made. I do know however that they are collecting data of any and all kinds that may serve as a precursor to a major quake. The Kobe quake has given them much data that at present time they are still going through. The Kobe quake almost destroyed the people’s confidence in their government. The Kobe earthquake revealed that Japan was not as prepared as it thought it was for dealing with such disasters.

Things were so desperate in Kobe that tens of thousands of people simply left. They packed what few belongings they could and set out, on foot, for other Japanese cities. Meanwhile, back in Kobe, food--and especially water--was very difficult to get. Warm, dry, stable shelter--of any kind--was hard to find. And, thanks in part to exhaustion and unsanitary living conditions, a flu epidemic erupted. On the positive side, Kobe residents demonstrated the stoic perseverance the Japanese people are known for. There were no reports of looting. Many shared what little food they had. And even though many were very upset with how the Japanese government handled (or mishandled) their situation, they accepted what had taken place and resolved to begin anew. Many older Japanese had, in fact, seen their city reduced to rubble before--by allied bombers during World War II.

One of the things that spared Northridge from greater suffering was a well planned and executed natural disaster plan. Emergency shelters were fully stocked and ready to go. Fireman, ambulances, police, search dogs, and other authorities were able to reach their targets because clear plans were in place and roads were kept clear and open. In Kobe's case, no such system was in place. Fires burned out of control. Shelters were unprepared for the casualties and injuries. Injured people could not get the help they needed. Roads were hopelessly blocked. Emergency crews didn't have the proper tools to cut through and search wreckage. In short, both civilian and government officials didn't seem to know which end was up. Roads in Japanese cities are at best more like walk ways. They are very narrow and it doesn’t take very much to close them. Any debris of any kind from a collapsed building is sufficient to block the road.

I think one of the main reasons’s for the apparent lack of movement in regards to earthquake prediction in Japan is their culture. Japan takes great pride in putting out quality products. They are not willing to accept anything that is less then the best product they can put out. This can be seen in virtually everything they do. With this in mind they feel that before they can predict an earthquake they must first learn what kind of precursors they are before an earthquake. To some extent they have found that what may be a precursor for one area may not necessarily be a precursor for another area. One seismologist point out the sad reality to earthquake prediction is while we may have a lot of little earthquakes it’s the big ones that give us the information we need.

Japan spends $100 million a year trying to predict earthquakes. It has around 200 seismographs across the country poised to register shifts in the earth's crust and flash the data into a central computer in Tokyo. Japan is also attempting to strengthen its early warning system by placing 10 new floating seismographs in the Pacific Ocean off the eastern coast of Honshu. Take Care…Don in creepy town.