Re: Can Earthquakes Be Predicted
Posted by Don in Hollister on March 28, 2001 at 14:09:07:

Hi Pavel. Thank you for the information. It’s always good to see someone such as yourself post. I have read your abstract about what you discovered in the coalmines in Czechoslovakia. I have taken the liberty of coping it so others may read it.

What I found to be interesting was the relationship of the energy-frequency (E-F) to the various layers of coal. Do you have any idea as to why there can be good statistical prediction in simple conditions, but in a multilayer environment it isn’t?

Also can you give a description of the equipment used to measure the (E-F)? Take Care…Don in creepy town.

“The parameter changes of theoretical distributions (Paretto, Weibull) are often used for short-term prediction of strong mine tremors (Lasocki, 1993a). The real observed data of energy-frequency (E -F) distribution are interleaved with these theoretical distributions. Such statistical prediction provides good results in simple conditions, but in the multilayer environment with alteration of strong and weak layers in the hanging wall, these results are unambiguous.
All parameters of E-F distribution were analysed in this work: the lower and upper limitations and E-F distribution slope. It was shown that the lower and upper limitations of E-F distribution have not any prediction ability for strong mine tremors, but they are connected with the apparatus sensitivity and thick nesses of the hanging wall layers respectively. The development of E-F distribution slope was modeled in case of coalface advancement in the strain-homogeneous area and it was shown that the periods of increasing and decreasing slope values were interchanged. Such a development of E-F distribution slope resulted in the activation of individual layers. The influence of individual layers depended on the proportion between their seismic activity and that of the whole coalface area.”


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Can Earthquakes Be Predicted - Pavel Kalenda  09:21:39 - 3/29/2001  (6459)  (1)
        ● Re: Can Earthquakes Be Predicted - Don in Hollister  10:26:28 - 3/29/2001  (6466)  (1)
           ● Re: Can Earthquakes Be Predicted - Pavel Kalenda  12:14:20 - 3/29/2001  (6468)  (1)
              ● Re: Can Earthquakes Be Predicted - Don in Hollister  16:33:57 - 3/29/2001  (6470)  (1)
                 ● Re: Can Earthquakes Be Predicted - Pavel Kalenda  09:06:29 - 3/30/2001  (6483)  (0)