Hi Roger.

First off, you can't possibly think that anyone lurking on these boards would think that a prediction of sunrise would be significant. Do you really believe that we need your calculation to tell us that?

If someone predicts an M7+ event correctly, I will not need your calculation to help me remember or to judge the prediction.

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, you well know that the whole idea of probability calculations are to show that no one can beat chance. Which will no doubt bring about various arguments on the formula as well as encourage people not to even try to make predictions.