"Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, you well know that the whole idea of probability calculations are to show that no one can beat chance. Which will no doubt bring about various arguments on the formula as well as encourage people not to even try to make predictions."

First of all, that is not the whole idea as you say. Granted, it will point out those that are simply BSing the world, but more importantly, it will validate those that that are actually on to something.

Let me ask you this David. Since you are so dead set against this method of prediction analysis, what do you suggest as an alternative ????

Michael